I’m not sure — he’s sometimes subtle — but one gets the impression that he doesn’t like it.
18 thoughts on “Orion”
He should tell us how he really feels.
We have two spaceflight industries. One is capable of near-miracles and the other can barely wipe its own ass. That’s the only conclusion I can draw from the evidence presented.
It’s like two diametrically-opposed realities occupying the same space.
The other part will only wipe if the public pays it to. After also paying for an ass-wiping technology to be developed.
And then someone says “But the ass needs to be wiped more thoroughly. I can still smell it.”
And that part throws its hands in the air dramatically and says “Well, we’ll have to throw all our development away and start from scratch. Send us more $$$.”
Repeat until the revolution.
Which will have oldspace executives turning to the officer in charge of the firing squad and saying “But you need to pay us first.”
Heh.
The same old space companies are a large part of the US defense contractor base. This should be a worry.
Yep, and Andruil and Palintir are going to begin SpaceXing the MIC.
Indeed they are. Anduril, in particular, seems to be gearing up for WW2-scale production of UAVs and missiles of all sizes by building a huge new plant in Ohio dubbed ‘Arsenal 1.’ The number in the name strongly hints that there will be a lather, rinse, repeat thing going forward anent monster Anduril factories. Being squeezed between Elon Musk on one side and Palmer Luckey on the other is going to be very uncomfortable for the legacy aerospace primes.
Overdue. We’re long past the days when Kelly Johnson would actually refuse government money when he felt the requirements weren’t achievable…
It is nice to see the new entrants and maybe that will shake up the old companies, who can compete if they choose to.
Also, keep an eye on shipping. Some promising new companies there too.
Thanks to advancement in other industries, and society as a whole, there will be some surprises coming from places that people don’t expect.
Oh yeah – big time.
I’m not sure — he’s sometimes subtle — but one gets the impression that he doesn’t like it.
Rand, your understatement is showing…
I cringe at the thought of Artemis II. SLS/Orion should be canceled *before* it kills.
The best part of this article was the reference link to NASA’s IRT Report of Aug. 2024. Entitled: “NASA’s Efforts to Understand and Respond to Artemis I Heat Shield Char Loss.”
From this report its obvious that what needs to be done is XXX X XXX XXXXX XXXXXXX XXXX XXX XXXXXX XXXX XXXXX XXXXX and XXXXXXXX.
ITAR not withstanding…
It’s time to pivot.
“ Why is Lockheed building a worse heat shield from an inferior material with more parts at vastly inflated cost for a capsule that, unlike the Mars rovers, will literally hold the life of four heroes in its tender clutches?
How the hell would I know?”
Oh, I know! “Cost plus, baby!”
As to the demand of an additional $2.5 billion for a docking adapter, it reminded me of something that happened back in 1990 on Shemya AFB, AK. The Air Force contracted for a new enlisted barracks. Building 599 was built at great expense and was nice. They contracted for another new barracks, Building 598. It was also built at great expense.* only, the contracting office failed to require that the room doors needed locks, so the contractor didn’t include any. Because of that, the building sat empty the entire year I was there. Oops!
*Constructing anything on Shemya was expensive. It is an island some 1200 miles west of Anchorage. Construction materials had to be transported by barges. Not cheap. Construction workers were paid very high salaries because, well, the weather on Shemya really sucked. Working outside was subject to a lot of delays due to the weather and wasn’t pleasant on even the best of days.
It is hard to get worked up about this anymore. I am just thankful there is a dual track approach.
Mostly true, Wodun, however what does get me worked up is the unnecessary risking of the 4 lives on Artemis II.
I care about those people (as I’m sure you do as well).
Yes. I’m hoping Isaacman gets an expeditious confirmation and that the first “take charge” thing he does is convert Artemis 2 into a second unmanned test flight. Its notional crew should be reassigned to Artemis 3. We can still Beat the Chinese[tm] without needing to chance awarding four more posthumous Space Medals of Honor.
I’ve long despised Orion. To me, it never made any sense at all, primarily due to the issue of mass. (And cost, since it’s actually been under development.)
To get it to the moon, you need to push all that mass through a lot of Delta/v. And more with Mars. It’s also far too small to do a Mars mission without a habitat module. And if you need a hab module anyway, why take Orion at all?
My question always was, why take such a massive mass penalty to shield the crew compartment for reentry? Why not use the old Soviet method, still used on Soyuz today, of a small spherical reentry vehicle? For living space, use an inflatable habitat module.
Or, if you want re-usability (Orion really isn’t) go with a much larger spacecraft, and do in-orbit refueling. (Starship).
He should tell us how he really feels.
We have two spaceflight industries. One is capable of near-miracles and the other can barely wipe its own ass. That’s the only conclusion I can draw from the evidence presented.
It’s like two diametrically-opposed realities occupying the same space.
The other part will only wipe if the public pays it to. After also paying for an ass-wiping technology to be developed.
And then someone says “But the ass needs to be wiped more thoroughly. I can still smell it.”
And that part throws its hands in the air dramatically and says “Well, we’ll have to throw all our development away and start from scratch. Send us more $$$.”
Repeat until the revolution.
Which will have oldspace executives turning to the officer in charge of the firing squad and saying “But you need to pay us first.”
Heh.
The same old space companies are a large part of the US defense contractor base. This should be a worry.
Yep, and Andruil and Palintir are going to begin SpaceXing the MIC.
Indeed they are. Anduril, in particular, seems to be gearing up for WW2-scale production of UAVs and missiles of all sizes by building a huge new plant in Ohio dubbed ‘Arsenal 1.’ The number in the name strongly hints that there will be a lather, rinse, repeat thing going forward anent monster Anduril factories. Being squeezed between Elon Musk on one side and Palmer Luckey on the other is going to be very uncomfortable for the legacy aerospace primes.
Overdue. We’re long past the days when Kelly Johnson would actually refuse government money when he felt the requirements weren’t achievable…
It is nice to see the new entrants and maybe that will shake up the old companies, who can compete if they choose to.
Also, keep an eye on shipping. Some promising new companies there too.
Thanks to advancement in other industries, and society as a whole, there will be some surprises coming from places that people don’t expect.
Oh yeah – big time.
I’m not sure — he’s sometimes subtle — but one gets the impression that he doesn’t like it.
Rand, your understatement is showing…
I cringe at the thought of Artemis II. SLS/Orion should be canceled *before* it kills.
The best part of this article was the reference link to NASA’s IRT Report of Aug. 2024. Entitled: “NASA’s Efforts to Understand and Respond to Artemis I Heat Shield Char Loss.”
From this report its obvious that what needs to be done is XXX X XXX XXXXX XXXXXXX XXXX XXX XXXXXX XXXX XXXXX XXXXX and XXXXXXXX.
ITAR not withstanding…
It’s time to pivot.
“ Why is Lockheed building a worse heat shield from an inferior material with more parts at vastly inflated cost for a capsule that, unlike the Mars rovers, will literally hold the life of four heroes in its tender clutches?
How the hell would I know?”
Oh, I know! “Cost plus, baby!”
As to the demand of an additional $2.5 billion for a docking adapter, it reminded me of something that happened back in 1990 on Shemya AFB, AK. The Air Force contracted for a new enlisted barracks. Building 599 was built at great expense and was nice. They contracted for another new barracks, Building 598. It was also built at great expense.* only, the contracting office failed to require that the room doors needed locks, so the contractor didn’t include any. Because of that, the building sat empty the entire year I was there. Oops!
*Constructing anything on Shemya was expensive. It is an island some 1200 miles west of Anchorage. Construction materials had to be transported by barges. Not cheap. Construction workers were paid very high salaries because, well, the weather on Shemya really sucked. Working outside was subject to a lot of delays due to the weather and wasn’t pleasant on even the best of days.
It is hard to get worked up about this anymore. I am just thankful there is a dual track approach.
Mostly true, Wodun, however what does get me worked up is the unnecessary risking of the 4 lives on Artemis II.
I care about those people (as I’m sure you do as well).
Yes. I’m hoping Isaacman gets an expeditious confirmation and that the first “take charge” thing he does is convert Artemis 2 into a second unmanned test flight. Its notional crew should be reassigned to Artemis 3. We can still Beat the Chinese[tm] without needing to chance awarding four more posthumous Space Medals of Honor.
I’ve long despised Orion. To me, it never made any sense at all, primarily due to the issue of mass. (And cost, since it’s actually been under development.)
To get it to the moon, you need to push all that mass through a lot of Delta/v. And more with Mars. It’s also far too small to do a Mars mission without a habitat module. And if you need a hab module anyway, why take Orion at all?
My question always was, why take such a massive mass penalty to shield the crew compartment for reentry? Why not use the old Soviet method, still used on Soyuz today, of a small spherical reentry vehicle? For living space, use an inflatable habitat module.
Or, if you want re-usability (Orion really isn’t) go with a much larger spacecraft, and do in-orbit refueling. (Starship).
Hard to argue with any of that.