Category Archives: Space

Too Late?

Wayne Hale explains why we should shut down the Shuttle.

Everything he says is true–much of the infrastructure and support contractors for the system are already gone. That’s why it will be very expensive to resurrect them to the degree necessary to fly past 2010. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible, but as I wrote in my PJM piece, we have to decide how much ISS is worth to us. And if we want to keep the option open, and as least costly as possible, we need to stop terminating those suppliers and destroying tooling immediately. It’s probably a prudent thing to do, until the next president can make a decision.

Congratulations To Armadillo

But it sounds like a business setback for XCOR:

If the demonstrations in Oshkosh and Burns Flat were meant as a fly-off, the Armadillo team – led by millionaire video-game programmer John Carmack – came away as the winner.

“The Armadillo engine is going to be the primary engine for the Rocket Racing League,” Whitelaw told me. He said five more planes will be built using Armadillo’s propulsion system, which is a spin-off from Carmack’s years-long quest to win the $2 million, NASA-backed Northrop Grumman Lunar Lander Challenge.

It sounds like the Armadillo engine has more thrust, though it’s not clear how the T/W compares.

I wonder to what degree XCOR was constrained by a potential desire to maintain some legacy toward the Lynx engine? If they were building an engine purely for the RRL, would it have been a different design and fuel type?

Presumably, the business plan with which they raised their recent institutional investment considered this as a contingency. I’m sure they would have liked continuing business from RRL, though Whitelaw doesn’t seem to rule it out for the future.

Shuttle Is Not Enough

It just occurs to me that even if we continue to fly the Shuttle through “the gap” that doesn’t really solve the problem of actually utilizing the station. We are currently planning on relying on dual Soyuzs (what’s the plural of “Soyuz”?) for “lifeboat” capability to allow a six-person crew after completion. If the US is not purchasing Soyuz, we wouldn’t be able to leave Americans on board permanently, unless we wanted to risk losing them in emergency. It seems unlikely that this would actually play out politically, but if there were only one Soyuz there while the Shuttle wasn’t, it would be a Titanic situation, with only enough escape craft for half the crew. Would the Russians just say, “dos vedanya…”? The OSP was supposed to serve in that function, but it was cancelled when the VSE came along.

What a policy Charlie Foxtrot.

I’ll bet that you could find volunteers in the astronaut office, though.

More On The “CAD Problem”

Jeff Finckenor responds to some of his critics in the comments section:

“He’s a whiner who didn’t get his way and went to the IG”

Not a terribly polite way to put things, but I suppose it is somewhat accurate. Of course “my way” which I was always advocating was a call to do a technical evaluation to determine what we really needed to do. You know, things like writing requirements, then making selections based on those requirements. Some people would call that good engineering. Some would call it federal law. It never happened. Had it happened then I wouldn’t have had any arguments to make and would have been shut down a long time ago. Had it happened and there were real reasons for MSFC and Constellation making the decisions they did, then I could have supported them even if I was less then thrilled. You go to the IG to report waste, fraud and abuse. I was duty bound to report what I saw as both a taxpayer and a government employee. If there wasn’t any meat to what I was saying, then the IG would have sent me away. They didn’t. Those who want to do the search may also want to look up a letter from Senator Grassley to NASA. It was a very powerful letter and appears to have been soundly ignored. It takes a lot of chutzpah to blow off the chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, but NASA got away with it.

Those who argue with me will trot out an “evaluation” that was done in 2002, except that that evaluation was based on a CM tool ONLY (not CAD management), and it was fatally flawed in how it was performed. And yes, all you’re getting here is an opinion, and again my information has been documented and given to the appropriate authorities.

Was I asked to “stop working against management”? I guess that’s one way to put it, if I was willing to ignore reality, give up on the vision of what NASA needs to succeed, and toe the party line.

It was wrenching deciding 3 years ago that my job wasn’t worth the mess that I was seeing. I had basically decided that a NASA that could make a decision so badly (which is not quite the same thing as a bad decision, though in this case I believe it is the same), and not be able to correct itself was not a good place to work. So I committed to supporting good engineering practice and federal law, knowing that I might be forced out. 3 years later, I have given up, which was again wrenching for me. The politics are too overwhelming, and it is indeed not a good place for me to work.

Go read the whole thing.

All of the comments have to be very disquieting to fans of business as usual at NASA. It’s not about CAD. It’s about whether this is an institution that, despite the many talented people working for it, is capable of getting us into space in any serious way.

And So It Begins

As I noted in my recent PJM piece, if we are going to continue to fly the Shuttle, decisions must be made almost immediately to keep key infrastructure in place, that is due to be dismantled. Several legislators, including the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, have sent a letter to the White House urging just such an action. It will be interesting to see the administration response.

A Brief History

…and a depressing one, of the Vision for Space Exploration. There’s a piece missing in the chronology, though. “Safe, Simple, Soon” was not part of the original vision. That was a sales slogan that ATK came up with to promote their particular means of implementing it. As noted, though, it seems to be failing on all three counts.

Note the comment that PDR has slipped into next year.

[Update mid morning PDT]

More on the PDR slip. It’s all the way out to next spring.