At this point, it looks like the administration is just trying to manage things to get past the mid-terms, after which they will have (in Barack Obama’s words to Vladimir) “more flexibility.”
At this point, it looks like the administration is just trying to manage things to get past the mid-terms, after which they will have (in Barack Obama’s words to Vladimir) “more flexibility.”
Fernandez has thoughts as well, https://x.com/wretchardthecat/status/2074024363603664931
What if there is no nuclear weapons deal and the Iranian government isn’t overthrown?
Iran knows we will attack them if they try and restart the program. They know we can largely counter their current capabilities and our ability to do so is growing, this includes shipping in the strait. They also know that we can destroy everything in their country should we choose to do so. We can also close the strait to them at any moment. Their foreign armies are being pummeled and dismantled.
Iran has been burying the entrances to their nuclear facilities. They want to impede an audacious raid but they also seal themselves off. They have limited means to change the state of play and the longer things go on, the less opportunity they have while everyone in the region adapts.
From Wretchard:
“4) focus on long term attrition to avoid a sudden crisis.”
Maybe we will do full scale war after the midterms or maybe we do more punitive raids while always leaving #2 from Wretchard’s list open and being mindful of #3.
When you’re outclassed in a fair fight, there’s always asymmetric warfare. Iran isn’t particularly good at that, but it is a goto strategy for them.
I’m of the opinion that the IRGC use of aerial and sea drones to this point, combined with the rapid advancement of both types since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, make the gap between “not good at asymmetric warfare” and “pesteringly good at asymmetric warfare” much smaller than in the past.
That is going to require our side having agents embedded in Iran to locate the places of manufacture and storage. That way they can be destroyed. It has devolved into an intelligence war.
You like living in the Stone Age? We can insure that you do…
Kind of a side hustle for the DoW these days…