Wikipedia, The World’s Most Trusted Information Source, confirms that the Starfish Prime explosion showing strong EMP effects was in the megaton range, in other words, a sizeable H-bomb.
Is Iran close to the next step of a hydrogen bomb?
Well first they’d have to gather up whatever is left of their 60% enriched U. Given the fact that they didn’t appear to be on the path for Plutonium synthesis via reactor transmutation and Neptunium decay, not sure the H bomb was on the agenda here. I suppose left to their own “devices” they could have pursued that path, or built a really heavy, low yield one with the material on hand. It’d be a lot harder now. Esp. since Trump has basically taken “carte blanche” to deal with Iran as necessary, at any time, for any reason. I’m presuming future (reasonable) Presidents, even if not orange, will probably keep this policy in place.
Once you have the tech for an A-bomb it’s not that hard to get to an H-bomb.
Personally, I’m on a part-time quest to better understand the inter-stage design of an H bomb. Something that can both shadow and focus X-rays to allow uniform spherical compression of the secondary in a modern thermonuclear weapon (vs the Ulam-Teller design) via its surrounding hohlraum. As they say, for this to work, time is of the essence. Umm. I won’t keep you posted about my progress. 🙂
“Once you have the tech for an A-bomb it’s not that hard to get to an H-bomb.”
Is this really the case? I seem to remember it took a few years to develop. The first H-bomb test was in 1952. Possibly this delay was due to lower priority, but I think there were some technical details to iron out as well.
Not to mention that it would need an H-bomb compact and light enough to put on a rocket to low orbit.
And a squib is likely to provoke a much more robust response than it would have in 1952. They wouldn’t get multiple tests to refine things either.
A big chunk of the delay was because “The Science” hadn’t been discovered. The so-called “Alarm Clock” design had been available, but it didn’t scale, not to the proper potential. It wasn’t until Stan Ulam came up with the idea of radiation implosion did it really take off. The key idea is that if properly focused, temperature makes up for pressure, by getting the tamper to participate. It was only a year and four months, give or take, between Ivy Mike (the first H-bomb using liquid D2, in a huge Dewer, surrounded by U238 as a tamper, a lab experiment not a deliverable bomb) and Castle Bravo (using dry lithium-deuteride in the “Shrimp” casing that could be easily converted to a bomb, but only barely so. Only the B-36 could handle it at the time.)
And a squib is likely to provoke a much more robust response than it would have in 1952. They wouldn’t get multiple tests to refine things either.
Yeah, being first or second has its advantages. Also being a global power with islands separated by large ocean expanses or land steppes, so you don’t kill off your population during tests helps.
Nowadays, instead of tests there are just computer sims.
or have a plan to rapidly de-energize the inner Van Allen Belt/LEO.
Reminds me of the plot behind the pilot movie for the TV Series: “Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea”. Featuring Walter Pidgeon as Admiral Nelson and Peter Lorre in a supporting role.
Wikipedia, The World’s Most Trusted Information Source, confirms that the Starfish Prime explosion showing strong EMP effects was in the megaton range, in other words, a sizeable H-bomb.
Is Iran close to the next step of a hydrogen bomb?
Well first they’d have to gather up whatever is left of their 60% enriched U. Given the fact that they didn’t appear to be on the path for Plutonium synthesis via reactor transmutation and Neptunium decay, not sure the H bomb was on the agenda here. I suppose left to their own “devices” they could have pursued that path, or built a really heavy, low yield one with the material on hand. It’d be a lot harder now. Esp. since Trump has basically taken “carte blanche” to deal with Iran as necessary, at any time, for any reason. I’m presuming future (reasonable) Presidents, even if not orange, will probably keep this policy in place.
Once you have the tech for an A-bomb it’s not that hard to get to an H-bomb.
Personally, I’m on a part-time quest to better understand the inter-stage design of an H bomb. Something that can both shadow and focus X-rays to allow uniform spherical compression of the secondary in a modern thermonuclear weapon (vs the Ulam-Teller design) via its surrounding hohlraum. As they say, for this to work, time is of the essence. Umm. I won’t keep you posted about my progress. 🙂
“Once you have the tech for an A-bomb it’s not that hard to get to an H-bomb.”
Is this really the case? I seem to remember it took a few years to develop. The first H-bomb test was in 1952. Possibly this delay was due to lower priority, but I think there were some technical details to iron out as well.
Not to mention that it would need an H-bomb compact and light enough to put on a rocket to low orbit.
And a squib is likely to provoke a much more robust response than it would have in 1952. They wouldn’t get multiple tests to refine things either.
A big chunk of the delay was because “The Science” hadn’t been discovered. The so-called “Alarm Clock” design had been available, but it didn’t scale, not to the proper potential. It wasn’t until Stan Ulam came up with the idea of radiation implosion did it really take off. The key idea is that if properly focused, temperature makes up for pressure, by getting the tamper to participate. It was only a year and four months, give or take, between Ivy Mike (the first H-bomb using liquid D2, in a huge Dewer, surrounded by U238 as a tamper, a lab experiment not a deliverable bomb) and Castle Bravo (using dry lithium-deuteride in the “Shrimp” casing that could be easily converted to a bomb, but only barely so. Only the B-36 could handle it at the time.)
And a squib is likely to provoke a much more robust response than it would have in 1952. They wouldn’t get multiple tests to refine things either.
Yeah, being first or second has its advantages. Also being a global power with islands separated by large ocean expanses or land steppes, so you don’t kill off your population during tests helps.
Nowadays, instead of tests there are just computer sims.
I see two paths or a combination. Either substantially harden the orbital assets or have a plan to rapidly de-energize the inner Van Allen Belt/LEO.
or have a plan to rapidly de-energize the inner Van Allen Belt/LEO.
Reminds me of the plot behind the pilot movie for the TV Series: “Voyage to the Bottom of the Sea”. Featuring Walter Pidgeon as Admiral Nelson and Peter Lorre in a supporting role.
They had to nuke the sky to put the fire out. Lucky we had a nuke submarine handy!
Oh yeah, and Barbara Eden (Jeannie) was in that movie too!
Shouldn’t the title of this post be: Nuuuuclear Weapons in Spaaaace! ?