Spanish Flu Published

Charles Krathammer noted today in Washington Post that any terrorist can now obtain a digital copy (electronic or DNA) of the Spanish flu that killed tens of millions in 1918-1919. The powers that be felt that the study opportunities given its similarity to avian flu outweighed the risks. The evolving flu pandemic may provide a stark test of my (Sam not Rand) hypothesis that democratic capitalism protects itself.

I joined Bill Joy in raising an alarm about the publishing of the human genome back in 2000 in my own little way contributing my own Op-Ed piece (not accepted). I have since changed my view. Simon’s The Ultimate Resoure 2 changed my view. When we have a bad actor like a terrorist who wants to kill millions, there are trillions of dollars mobilized to combat it when the threat becomes imminent.

That is, if bird flu broke out, there would be massive quarantines, crash vaccine and anti-viral drug production programs, virus safety instructions, massive scientific study and so on. The people in harm’s way will pay thousands each to buy black market antivirals, head for the hills, or whatever course of action is open to them.

Capitalism is kind of like if you need a taxi ride to the hospital to save your life you start waving hundred dollar bills to attract a cab. Democracy means we have a government that can field an army if capitalism falters due to breakdown of property rights and rule of law.

You can improve your chances and possibly capitalism’s chances if you do the following. Ask your doctor to prescribe a 42-day prophylactic course of Tamiflu. Don’t start taking the prophylaxis course until bird flu is sighted in your area. Tamiflu also can be used for 5 days (at twice the dosage) for acute treatment if you start to show symptoms. Track avian flu’s spread from chicken to Turkey at the World Health Organization.

There won’t be enough Tamiflu if bird flu is a big hit. Unless the price starts to rise now. Unless capitalism’s wheels start to turn to produce a lot of it. Unless democracy steps in and does mandatory licensing so every pharmaceuticals manufacturer can produce tamiflu.

“The flu virus, properly evolved, is potentially a destroyer of civilizations,” depending on how resiliant they are.



2005-10-14 14:57:32

It looks like I am a little late with my advice. A couple weeks ago it was reported Roche said it was unable to keep up with demand. Maybe this prior post was enough for you to act. If you want to have my ten doses, make a conditional pledge to the Space Frontier Foundation in the comments to this post and bring a prescription to next week’s SFF meeting in LA.

2005-10-17 09:38:00
Henry Miller WSJ (subscription required) echoed my words, “In society, as in biology, resilience means survival.”