There's a new startup company that claims that it will be able to deliver a half a ton of payload to orbit in less than a year and a half.

Based on their web site, it seems to be Beal Aerospace redux--a big dumb booster, presumably expendable, though it doesn't state this explicitly (though not as "dumb" as the Beal project--it uses pumps...) funded by a millionaire to go after the existing launch market.

Our first launch vehicle, named Falcon, is a two stage, liquid oxygen and kerosene powered rocket capable of placing half a ton into low Earth orbit. We expect to have the Falcon ready for launch by late 2003, with the actual liftoff date subject to Air Force and NASA safety approval.

This statement in itself would seem to indicate that they don't know what they're doing. Assuming that it's a commercial vehicle, neither the Air Force or NASA provide approval of "safety." This is done by the FAA.

That's not to say, of course, that they don't actually know what they're doing--just that they don't appear to, based on that statement at their web site. The personnel list looks competent enough, though it seems a little engineer heavy, and I don't see any actual launch operations experience there (which will be necessary to jump through all the AST hoops). The only name I recognize, other than Elon Musk (the guy who founded Paypal, and has been funding some ventures for the Mars Society), is Gwynne Gurevich, formerly of Microcosm.

It's possible that some PR type put the web site together, and thought that it might sound more impressive to say they'll get Air Force and NASA approval, to the general public who's unaware of these issues. If so, it's sad in a different way, because it still means that NASA is associated with space in the public mind, and that nothing is possible without them.

My prognosis, regardless of the technical talent: based on the stated business plan, it will fail. My opinion is subject to change, given more information.