China just launched the fourth test flight in the Shenzhou series.

They claim success, and it's one more milestone toward their stated goal of establishing a manned space program. I don't find it of any concern, and actually wish them well, considering that they're operating in the old paradigm. It will be a program for prestige only (as ours mostly is), not one that will make any great strides in space.

Isn't the Chinese program basically a direct rip-off of the Soyuz/Proton model, down to the design of the manned orbiter (including the faring anf escape tower) and the first stage booster with the multiple engine clusters? Weren't the Russians (or, I guess, Soviets) doing the same thing 35 years ago with the first Soyuz?

If anything, the Chinese effort comes across as less of a demonstration of their technical and engineering prowess than another reminder of how unoriginal and derivative Chinese science and engineering is today. There is certainly no shortage of intelligent, talented people in China, but they have a system which inhibits creative, out-of-the-box thinking even on purely technical matters as well as political ones.

[ Isn't the Chinese program basically a direct rip-off of the Soyuz/Proton model, down to the design of the manned orbiter (including the faring anf escape tower) ]

Jim Oberg published an article a while back about the Chinese space project. He said that the Chinese space vehicle is indeed a close relative or descendant of the Soyuz, although slightly enlarged and with some other improvements. Sorry I don't have that citation handy. I think I orginally got to Oberg's article from nasawatch.com.

As to Chinese space technology being unoriginal and derivative, I dunno, it's hard to say. What would you advise that they do? Try to leap ahead to a horizontal take-off reusable space plane with scramjets, or what?

If the Chicoms do orbit a taikonaut in 2003, then they can boast that they've caught up with and equaled the Rooskies' capability. In fact, if I were advising the Chinese, I'd propose that they plan a manned space mission during the next few years that would dock with the ISS. Purpose: showing the Chinese flag and winning international prestige!

What would be a realistic next step for the Chinese, following a docking mission to the ISS? I'd suggest a manned mission to circumnavigate the Moon and come back no late than, oh, the end of this decade. That'd show the Americans. After all, the USA no longer has the hardware with which to put a person into lunar orbit.

A Soyuz-type space vehicle may not seem as elegant as a Shuttle, but the capsules are reusable and cost effective. The next item of hardware I'd advise the Chinese to work on is a recoverable and reusable two stage missile to launch their space capsule. This two stage missile would be, essentially, a larger version of Kistler Aerospace's reusable missile proposal.

I contend that a totally reusable launch system such as this, while seeming to be somewhat retro, would actually be shrewd and cost effective. Once the Chinese have a reusable medium-heavy launch vehicle, then they could start thinking about a small space plane to supplant the Soyuz-type capsule.

What do you guys think?

Posted by David Davenport at December 30, 2002 10:18 AM

Wonder if they are still trying to build killer satellites to knock out ours?

[ Wonder if they are still trying to build killer satellites to knock out ours? ]

I sincerely hope they are. The only hope for re-vitalizing the American space program is a perceived Chinese space threat.

[ As to Chinese space technology being unoriginal and derivative, I dunno, it's hard to say. What would you advise that they do? Try to leap ahead to a horizontal take-off reusable space plane with scramjets, or what? ]

Let's return to the topic of the Chinese space program being unoriginal.

My comments:

(1) When one is playing technological catch-up, being a copycat works, if good, appropriate equipment is chosen for copying;

(2) Please suggest an original, non-derivative space project for the Chinese, assuming their goal is not pure science, but instead (a) prestige and (b) military space power.

Pardon my sarcasm but:

If anything, the American effort comes across as less of a demonstration of their technical and engineering prowess than another reminder of how unoriginal and derivative American science and engineering is today. There is certainly no shortage of intelligent, talented people in the USA, but they have a system which inhibits creative, out-of-the-box thinking even on purely technical space matters as well as political ones.

So would a space race between the US and China lead to the collapse of the last communist bastion?

Whoo boy, David! Where to start???

"As to Chinese space technology being unoriginal and derivative, I dunno, it's hard to say. What would you advise that they do? Try to leap ahead to a horizontal take-off reusable space plane with scramjets, or what?"

How about something other than a purely reverse-engineered Soyuz/Proton combo? That been around since 1967; surely it's not the last word in a one-time-use vehicle?

"If the Chicoms do orbit a taikonaut in 2003, then they can boast that they've caught up with and equaled the Rooskies' capability."

Yeah, I guess all those Salyut and Mir endurance records just don't count!

"In fact, if I were advising the Chinese, I'd propose that they plan a manned space mission during the next few years that would dock with the ISS."

Gee, do they have to get permission to do that???

"What would be a realistic next step for the Chinese, following a docking mission to the ISS? I'd suggest a manned mission to circumnavigate the Moon and come back no late than, oh, the end of this decade. That'd show the Americans."

Yeah, equalling a feat first accomplished in 1968! That'll really show the Americans!!!

"(2) Please suggest an original, non-derivative space project for the Chinese, assuming their goal is not pure science, but instead (a) prestige and (b) military space power."

How about a space vehicle that doesn't look like either Soyuz or Apollo? Last time I checked, prestige usually comes through original work, not careful imitation of prior work.

"If anything, the American effort comes across as less of a demonstration of their technical and engineering prowess than another reminder of how unoriginal and derivative American science and engineering is today."

ROTFLMAO!!!! If your point is American space engineering is lackluster, you're right. But to say American science and engineering as a whole in unoriginal and derivative. . . . . whoo boy!!

[ How about something other than a purely reverse-engineered Soyuz/Proton combo? That been around since 1967; surely it's not the last word in a one-time-use vehicle? ]

I don?t see why copycatting is such a bad idea if one is playing catch-up. Copycatting Soyuz now doesn?t preclude being original in the future.

As for one-time use vehicle, I thought the that Soyuz can be re-used if the ablative coating is refurbished between flights ? same as the Shuttle. Am I wrong about that?

If I were advising the Chinese, I would tell them to keep their Soyuz clone for a while and develop a an RLV to launch it. How?s that for originality: an actual, functioning RLV!

["If the Chicoms do orbit a taikonaut in 2003, then they can boast that they've caught up with and equaled the Rooskies' capability."

Yeah, I guess all those Salyut and Mir endurance records just don't count! ]

Correct, Salyut and Mir endurance records don?t count for present-day public relations purposes. Endurance records don?t interest the general public, anyway. What are you doing in space NOW? That?s the kind of thing the general public understands.

["In fact, if I were advising the Chinese, I'd propose that they plan a manned space mission during the next few years that would dock with the ISS."

Gee, do they have to get permission to do that??? ]

Very bad public relations if the US if the refused to allow the Chinese to dock with the ISS.

["What would be a realistic next step for the Chinese, following a docking mission to the ISS? I'd suggest a manned mission to circumnavigate the Moon and come back no late than, oh, the end of this decade. That'd show the Americans."

Yeah, equalling a feat first accomplished in 1968! That'll really show the Americans!!! ]

1968 is ancient history. Once upon a time Rome , Great Britain, and the USSR were great and powerful. Etc., etc., etc.,

The USA does not have the capability to put people into lunar orbit NOW.

["(2) Please suggest an original, non-derivative space project for the Chinese, assuming their goal is not pure science, but instead (a) prestige and (b) military space power."

How about a space vehicle that doesn't look like either Soyuz or Apollo? Last time I checked, prestige usually comes through original work, not careful imitation of prior work. ]

Again, copycatting, if successful, may be a good way for the Chinese to catch in the space race. Originality can come later. ? Sort of like the history of Japanese cars.

["If anything, the American effort comes across as less of a demonstration of their technical and engineering prowess than another reminder of how unoriginal and derivative American science and engineering is today."]

[ROTFLMAO!!!! If your point is American space engineering is lackluster, you're right. But to say American science and engineering as a whole in unoriginal and derivative. . . . . whoo boy!! ]

OK, we agree on that point.

Whoops! I didn't proofread before posting that last post. Hereare some corrections:

I thought the that Soyuz can be re-used ...

Change to, "I thought that Soyuz can be re-used ..."

a an RLV ...

Change to, " a RLV ..."

if the US if the refused to allow the Chinese ...

Change to, "for the US if the US refused to allow the Chinese ..."

Chinese to catch in the space race ...

Change to, "Chinese to catch up in the space race ..."