I've been remiss in not pointing out this interesting survey on the IT industry by the Economist. It's a long read, with several articles, but it's got a lot of useful thoughts for anyone interested in the future of IT.

Do you think this two-stage model will also apply to space? Could the completion of an X-Prize vehicle and it's capture of the actual prize be the "big bang" for that industry? The model presented in the initial article seems rather accurate given the examples that they had, including air travel. If the X-Prize isn't the "big bang" of the model shown, what do you think it would take to create that "big bang" to get space travel (whether it be exploration, tourism, or colonisation) moving? Im curious as to your thoughts.

Existence of a profitable exit strategy. Ie, startup aerospace or space companies getting bought out for a bundle of money or IPOing. The X Prize might push the industry over the edge there.