The Economist describes yet one more reason that the European project is doomed--demographics.

Hi Rand. I think demographic gloom-and-doom predictions are a bit like the old Club of Rome predictions regarding the environment. Trends that seemed very bad 40 years ago just didn't happen. What's happening in the labor field is European workers are becoming more productive; e.g. this article claims [ http://faculty-web.at.nwu.edu/economics/gordon/355.pdf ] Europeans actually are more efficient on an output-per-working-hour basis than Americans.
There will be a shortage of labor and taxpayers only if the basic productivity per worker doesn't increase. I regard this a unlikely, e.g. because there is less need for manual work in the agricultural and industrial sectors thanks to automation. E.g. a large share of the Finnish "baby boomer" generation is employed by the forest/paper industry, which has been losing jobs since the 1970s.

In any case, it seems the creation of a COMMON EUROPEAN LABOR MARKET should alleviate the problem for those EU member nations that face a bigger shortage than the rest! All things being equal, workers would like to migrate to EU countries providing good employment opportunities. Maybe the so-called "New European" countries will continue to provide a pool of relatively cheap labor...certainly seems like a good reason for EU expansion in any case.

MARCU$

The EU personnally makes me very proud! I have always respected Europeans for their enginuity.
Their rail system, phenominal engineering projects like the Chunnel and the new 20 mile crossing between Sweden and Denmark, not to mention their first rate/high tech military hardware that often makes ours look wanting. Maybe there is some bad economics or a few policies that need to be changed, but for what its worth they are at least a continent heading in the direction of peace and unity - not the other way. Their space program also seems to be becoming more agressive with MARS and VENUS missions and so on. There XMM X-Ray tellescope is more powerful than Chandra and they have the most powerful Gammaray sattalite, and earth observing satalite (ENVISAT) in orbit.

There success doesn't hurt us. Lets be happy that other people on earth are going good too!

> The EU personnally makes me very proud!

Gosh! It's probably the first time anyone has uttered a positive statement about the European Union in this forum!
--
I think U.S. conservatives/liberarians loathe us Western Europeans not because we are anti-American but because we are pro-liberal "statists". Note that Justice Anthony Kennedy cited the European Court of Human Rights as a good reason to strike down Texas' anti-gay laws ( http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/002/894rrxwn.asp ). I sense there is a fear the Democrats eventually may gain the upper hand thanks to Europe, much as the Tories have been rendered almost irrelevant in Britain.

MARCU$

I sense there is a fear the Democrats eventually may gain the upper hand thanks to Europe, much as the Tories have been rendered almost irrelevant in Britain.

Dream on, Marcus. And the poster who is so admiring of the EU is also admiring of massive government space programs (particularly the former Soviet's), for what it's worth.

Just keep whistling past that European graveyard...

Energiia
Mir
Soyuz
Proton
ENVISAT
XMM
Mars/Venus Express
Rossetta
Huygins
...

Those are all pretty significant space initiatives
to be brushing aside. Private space interests may ultimately lead beyond LEO to tourism on MARS and beyond (I wouldn't be happier), but until they promote 'real science' to the extent that Governments do - someone has to do it. It keeps us all looking skyward, wondering of more, and wanting to do it that much quicker!

I don't care that much about space science, Chris, "real" or otherwise. The delusion that science is the reason we have a manned space program is one of the reasons why we've made so little progress.

> The delusion that science is the reason we have
> a manned space program is one of the reasons
> why we've made so little progress.

Beggars can't be choosers, Rand. Proponents of commercial manned space transportation systems have made even less progress.

MARCU$

Proponents of commercial manned space transportation systems have made even less progress.

Why would they be expected to, when they haven't (to date) been provided a thousandth of the money? Fortunately, that's changing.

I wouldn't be surprised if Lockheed or Boeing teamed up with Rutan if things go well. I'd give it two years before we can tell the outcome of the X-Prize / Rutan happenings. By then there may not be a shuttle program and Albatross 1 may be written off for whomever can get their first!

Again, CAD and CAS (simulation) not to mention rapid prototyping and Composites should give them at least a chance to best the big guys.

As far as science - I'd trade my life for images of Exoplanets! Too see Oxygen in the atmospheres of other Earths. To know if the Big Bang was really what happened. To know how the universe formed if it was not here forever. To have samples of Martian and Europan microbiotic Life which I surely believe exists (if not on their own from Transpermia type actions from life here on Earth Migrating there). I'd much rather read the many volumes and scientific papers on the discoveries made by Casini then to venture off on a temporary joy ride in space (that is until it actual can get to colonizing places or having self sufficient space centers on the order of 20 million ton ship weights).

Can you imagin if there still were only Marinar one images of Mars and no hint of what Europa / Titan or Tritan were like?

You got to remember its not just keeping jobs in these highly specialized areas. if you go twenty years without funding, entire branches of science could be lost. Imagin giving up on fussion and forgetting how to do it. Imagin not remembering any of the big bang equasions and having to trust an elderly retired Dr. that sort of remembers what he did dozens of years ago.

As for manned missions and Science, I certainly think the Space Station is a disaster because it was only to do just science: It could have been more specifically made for production/space assembly, as a platform for maintainable ENVISAT TERRA like sensors (perhaps requiring a polar orbiting station), and so on...

I wouldn't be surprised if Lockheed or Boeing teamed up with Rutan if things go well.

I would be shocked if that occurred. Lockmart in particular has no interest in that market, and Burt wouldn't work with either of them.

>> Proponents of commercial manned space
>> transportation systems have made even less
>> progress.

> Why would they be expected to, when they
> haven't (to date) been provided a thousandth of
> the money?

"Obtained" would be a better word, since proponents of space tourism etc. have to raise capital like other entrepreneurs. Their success depends on how credible/attractive the idea (and the rocket entrepreneurs themselves) seems to investors. So far they have not been very successful although, as you imply below, some organizations have indeed made modest progress in recent years.

> Fortunately, that's changing.

We shall see.

MARCU$