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Thinner Profit Lines

I predicted this would happen a few years ago, when the low-carb diets were still fringe theories, but I couldn't figure out what exactly was the right play--short selling doesn't make sense for an event that may take years. They're really killing revenues for bread and pasta makers. It's also, just as predictably, hitting doughnut and orange juice sales.

Posted by Rand Simberg at May 16, 2004 11:28 AM
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I don't know what you think about the Atkins diet but I can't help but thinking that its a load of crap.

There is a harsh reality that no one wants to admit, or tell anyone else: the only way to loose weight is to either eat less or exercise more.

Atkins I thinks works for some people because it tricks them into eating lower calorie diets by cutting out the bun when eating a hamburger for instance.

But I think the anti-carb fad is just like the anti-fat fad. It doesn't matter if you eat less carbs or less fat than someone else if you're eating more overall.

Posted by at May 17, 2004 08:24 AM

I think that it's foolish to think that what you eat doesn't affect your body chemistry and metabolism (i.e., Atkins does in fact work very effectively for a large number of people, and the FDA food pyramid is an obesity-inducing disaster).

If by "trick people into eating less" you mean cause hormonal changes that reduce your craving for food, then yes, I guess one could say that's how Atkins (and other reduced-carb diets) works. The point is, it works, not only reducing weight, but reducing cholesterol as well.

Posted by Rand Simberg at May 17, 2004 08:34 AM

Sorry but I just look at myself, who was 288 pounds three years ago and presently am at 165 and I kind of question the validity of the diet based on the numerous diets I went through my entire life.

By "Tricking people into eating less" I meant exactly what I said. It makes sense that if you cut out the bun of a burger you can cut out 30% to 40% of the calories. But people are too stupid to know the difference. So they go along their merry day thinking that carbs like fat has anything to do with it.

I still think Atkins was right to question the anti-fad culture but he has merely replaced it with an anti-carb culture.

Sorry for questioning the Atkins "God."

Posted by Jason Verheyden at May 17, 2004 01:49 PM

Atkins is hardly a "god." I don't do the diet myself, but it's very clear, both empirically, and based on sound theory of the endocrine system that we do better with far fewer carbs, particularly the refined ones. Carbs cause fat, not fat. We don't fatten cattle by feeding them butter--we do it with corn.

We simply didn't evolve to the modern diet, and it's no wonder our body rebels when we try to give it things that are unhealthy.

And sorry, but people aren't stupid. They know that they are getting fewer calories from a burger and bun than just a burger alone, but that's not relevant to how the diet works, because they substitute additional protein and fat for the bun (items which are actually much higher in calories on a weight basis than carbs).

The notion that weight gain or loss is simple thermodynamics (more calories equals more weight gain, all other things equal) is so simplistic as to be useless. Metabolic rate matters too.

And as for looking at yourself, that's irrelevant, since no one claims that it works for everyone. We don't base science on personal anecdotes--we do research.

Posted by Rand Simberg at May 17, 2004 03:09 PM

I haven't read Atkins in over 20 yrs. but I've witnessed some successes, including the guy that ate the whole turkey for thankgiving and lost 200 lbs. that year. I have no idea for how long he maintained his lower weight.

As I understand it, the point of Atkins is to put your body into ketosis where fat converts to ketones and is eliminated from the body because the body can only convert so many ketones to energy and the rest is just washed out (which includes producing bad breath.)

Posted by ken anthony at May 17, 2004 03:25 PM

As a +40 pound loser myself, Atkins works because even though someone points out that "you get less calories when you don't eat the bread", you can eat MORE of the good stuff like meat and cheese. You quickly learn that bread is mostly used as a wrapper, and doesn't add anything to the taste.

Lunch today: BIG salad, with lots of crumbled gorgonzola and bacon, and HOT buffalo wings (not breaded, of course)! I'm still drooling thinking about it. Oh, BTW, 7 carbs.

Ketosis rocks!

Posted by Dave G at May 17, 2004 09:02 PM

I agree with Rand that scince explains why Atkins works for many, but not all who try it. I think there is a psychological element at work as well. I followed Atkins (loosely) 2 years ago and went from a 40 to a 34 over several months. I just can't buy eating eggs and bacon all the fat in his book. All also don't buy NO carbs philosophy, either. The mind part for me, was to have a baked potatoe with a steak on Saturday night, and then I didn't miss such a comfort food during the week. What I really learned was that if you eat meat and vegetables alot and cut out refined sugar, it is easy to lose weight. I now maintain my wieght with little effort and do enjoy pasta, bread, and starches, in limited quantities. I also used to drink cola in a cocktail and put sugar in my coffee. I now drink sugar free tang (yes, tang is good with clear adult beverages)in my cocktail and use Splenda in my coffee. Life is good...

Posted by Andy J at May 20, 2004 01:08 PM

I tried several diets and low carb worked best for me. It is a nice diet because you feel nourished and yet you end up eating less calories. My sense of taste also seems to be more sensitive now. But it was not easy giving up bread. If you are trying a low carb diet, I suggest you progressively reduce the amount of complex hydrocarbons you eat and replace them with bananas, which also have some hydrocarbons, when you really feel the urge to eat bread.

After a while I didn't feel the need to eat hydrocarbons at all, but more recently I have re-introduced hydrocarbons in my diet, albeith in quite moderate amounts. I now eat two slices of bread a day. Turns out bread has some essentials I was missing, like folic acid. The fact that bread is fermented with yeast means it has some nice vitamins. I did try eating leafy greens instead, but I really don't like them very much...

Posted by GodZirra at May 23, 2004 05:04 PM


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