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« Launch Regulation Legislation | Main | First-Hand Description »

Ivan Redux?

The storm apparently did a U-turn up in the mid-Atlantic and headed back down here. It's been dumping rain on us overnight, and through the morning, on its way west. It's headed across Florida and back to the Gulf, where it may reform. Keep an eye out for it, Texas.

Posted by Rand Simberg at September 20, 2004 10:05 AM
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Excerpt: Jeanne is fading as it passes into southern Georgia. It's...
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Tracked: September 27, 2004 05:47 AM

Huh? Sounds like someone is confusing TS Jeanne or Hurricane Karl with Ivan (which has dissipated). Jeanne is wandering unpredictably halfway between the Bahamas and Bermuda, and might swing back west (but this cannot be predicted at this point.) Karl is even farther out, and is predicted to head north past Newfoundland in five days or so. It would be weird if it went on to hit Greenland.

Posted by Paul Dietz at September 20, 2004 10:58 AM

No, this is the ghost of Ivan, which may resurrect. Jeanne remains off shore, unsure where to go next.

Posted by Rand Simberg at September 20, 2004 11:00 AM

That happens too often for me. I remember 2 or 3 in the last 10 years that went inland, came back, re-formed in the gulf and came over here(Texas). It's not fair! If you dodge them once, you shouldn't have to try to again lol. If it reforms, it will get a new name.

Posted by Bill Maron at September 20, 2004 12:18 PM

Ah, I see. That looks like a fragment of Ivan, but the main part of Ivan is a rather intense non-tropical cyclone that's currently around Newfoundland.

Posted by Paul Dietz at September 20, 2004 12:32 PM

Yeah, the main event is WAY up off the Canadian maritimes. However, there was somehow a goodly shot of moisture that kinda ran backward down the trailing cold front. (Which is, in itself, somewhat odd...) So it looks like you're drinking Ivan's backwash. Ewwwww! ;-)

- Eric.

Posted by Eric S. at September 20, 2004 05:13 PM

Son of Ivan

Posted by Bill White at September 20, 2004 06:42 PM

You meant 'Hurricane Dan' I'm sure. THAT looks like it's going to wander around dumping on people for another go.

Posted by Al at September 20, 2004 09:08 PM

It definitely is Ivan. Ivan isn't just rain, these storms and Ivan are low pressure areas. The low pressure area which was Ivan is over Florida. That other stuff up north is not Ivan.

Posted by Jardinero1 at September 21, 2004 09:18 AM

Lessee...Karl is a German name, Ivan is Russian, and Jeanne (if pronounced right) is French/Belgian. We're being invaded by the Axis of Weasel!

Posted by Alan K. Henderson at September 22, 2004 12:01 AM

And now Jeanne is coming back. The current NHC prediction has it hitting the central east coast of Florida in 3 or 4 days, with 95 kt peak sustained winds.

Posted by Paul Dietz at September 23, 2004 04:43 AM

Yeah, Jeanne never really went away. She just dithered and wandered around east of the Bahamas for a few days. We may have to put up the shutters again tomorrow.

But we'll stay in the house this time, unless it looks like it's going to hit south of us (in which case we'll have to worry about flooding again).

And if I have to power things off the car again, I'll watch the temperature gauge like a hawk...

Posted by Rand Simberg at September 23, 2004 05:17 AM

I come late to this thread, having only just found the site, which I like a lot. As a serious weather nut, let me explain about Ivan.

Reaching the east coast, Ivan was hit by strong, bi-directional shear. Southwesterly jet stream tore Ivan's top off and raced a pulse of tropical energy northeast to deepen that polar low off the Maritimes. Meanwhile mid-level winds from the northwest shoved Ivan's mid-level circulation offshore of the Carolinas. The cyclone's surface center dissipated entirely as a cold front blew off the continent and undercut the mid-level remnant.

As the mid-level flow shifted to north and northeast, it drove Ivan's detached mid-level swirl over the Gulf Stream and back across the stalled-out cold front. Off northern Florida a surface circulation began to redevelop. That crossed into the Gulf, becoming a new tropical storm. After intense internal debate (which caused a lengthy delay in issuance of the initial advisory), the National Hurricane Center decided to continue the name Ivan for the new system.

Commenters here had bits and pieces of the story right. This is the whole tale. Maybe Rand will read it, if he ever gets his power back. (Don't blow up your car this time!)

Posted by Alan Sullivan at September 26, 2004 12:19 PM

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