Transterrestrial Musings  


Amazon Honor System Click Here to Pay

Space
Alan Boyle (MSNBC)
Space Politics (Jeff Foust)
Space Transport News (Clark Lindsey)
NASA Watch
NASA Space Flight
Hobby Space
A Voyage To Arcturus (Jay Manifold)
Dispatches From The Final Frontier (Michael Belfiore)
Personal Spaceflight (Jeff Foust)
Mars Blog
The Flame Trench (Florida Today)
Space Cynic
Rocket Forge (Michael Mealing)
COTS Watch (Michael Mealing)
Curmudgeon's Corner (Mark Whittington)
Selenian Boondocks
Tales of the Heliosphere
Out Of The Cradle
Space For Commerce (Brian Dunbar)
True Anomaly
Kevin Parkin
The Speculist (Phil Bowermaster)
Spacecraft (Chris Hall)
Space Pragmatism (Dan Schrimpsher)
Eternal Golden Braid (Fred Kiesche)
Carried Away (Dan Schmelzer)
Laughing Wolf (C. Blake Powers)
Chair Force Engineer (Air Force Procurement)
Spacearium
Saturn Follies
JesusPhreaks (Scott Bell)
Journoblogs
The Ombudsgod
Cut On The Bias (Susanna Cornett)
Joanne Jacobs


Site designed by


Powered by
Movable Type
Biting Commentary about Infinity, and Beyond!

« Who Will Ask The Last Goose? | Main | More October Surprises »

Exponential

Phil Bowermaster has an interesting post on what the future may hold in terms of information storage and processing.

Posted by Rand Simberg at October 27, 2004 05:58 AM
TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.transterrestrial.com/mt-diagnostics.cgi/3068

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference this post from Transterrestrial Musings.
Comments

What I find weird about exponential growth and decay laws is that so many folks are impressed by the their existence. I mean, isn't it widely known that exponential growth and decay tend to pop out of the simplest and most ubiquitous equation of motion for dynamical variables A, namely dA/dt = f(A) ("A in the near future is solely determined by what's up with A right now")?

Most non-exponential growth and decay trends are some hideously complex combination of simpler, underlying exponential processes. That is, it's the non-exponential process that should bemuse.

Also worth emphasizing is that exponential growth implies a parallel exponential decay process. If per capita wealth has been growing exponentially, this fact implies it is perfectly capable of shrinking exponentially as well (cf. Russia in the last ten years). Indeed, what would be tricky would be to get it to balance on the exact cusp between growth and decay, so that it burbled along roughly constant as the population grew.

This should be a warning sign. Do not assume because things (e.g. national wealth, public opinion) are going exponentially in your favor that the trend is so robust you can mess with it as you please (e.g. dick with taxes and policies). It's perfectly possible for minor parameter shifts to suddenly get your trend going exponentially against you.

Posted by Carl Pham at October 27, 2004 04:09 PM


Post a comment
Name:


Email Address:


URL:


Comments: