Here's a long, but interesting article about SpaceX and Elon Musk.

Interesting that they interviewed Andy Beal. I hadn't heard him be quoted in quite some time.

Speaking of Beal, didn't he try this before? Got his engine designed and working, too.

Well, I wish those guys luck in finding jobs in a couple of years when Musk has to lay them off. I wish I wasn't so cynical about their chances.

I think he's probably going to successfully reach orbit.

The problem is the timelag between reaching orbit and creating a market- just because he can reach orbit for a low price, doesn't mean anyone will pay him to do that for some years. If Musk can hold in there for up to 5 years, then he could make it big. One problem is that 5 years is enough for competitors to build their own launchers...

It might be different if his vehicle was manned; space tourism is going to be big.

I suspect after a good launch or two, Musk will have an IPO to raise capital to help stave off the wolves.

Musk can personally afford all the development costs. When you factor in the fact that with 30% seed money you can get the 70% loan to do almost any scheme, no matter how risky.....

The hints at a big booster sound interesting...

Sounds like he has the money and development culture to succeed at low cost a la Skunkworks style.

I'm an optimist on this one.

Beal did try this before, or at least something like it. He didn't get as far as Musk has. Moreover, there was something odd going on there -- he destroyed his technology, IIRC, rather than sell it to anyone when he folded (and made excuses about NASA driving customers away).

Frankly, Musk's start-even-smaller approach just seems more reasonable. Taking the Falcon I prototype to the quad in Washington was a stroke of genius, IMO. Invaluable publicity, *and* stroking the egos of the major customer for launchers in that class (the government).