Dwayne Day debunks sensationalistic misreporting about the Chinese space program.

Despite Western media—and political—comments to the contrary, all of the speakers agreed that China is not trying to “race” the United States in space. In fact, the Chinese make an issue out of stressing that they should not race the US. As one speaker noted, “They clearly recognize what happened to the Soviet Union getting sucked into SDI.” They don’t want to repeat that mistake.

A different speaker suggested that the Chinese space program, particularly its manned program, was a major liability for the country because it used up scarce engineering talent that was required elsewhere. Every engineer working on the Chinese space program was one who was not building bridges. This is even more acute because the space program is incredibly inefficient, with far too many people working on it. One person who recently visited China remarked that they had asked a Chinese engineer if he liked his job. He replied that it was great, but he only wished that the three other people who also held it would get out of his way.

Yup. I'm quaking in my boots at the Chinese space menace.

Mark Whittington prefers to live on in his dreamland of a new space race, though.

Rand and Dwyane maintain that there is no space race with the Chinese. Why? Because the Chinese say so. That demonstrates a rather charming tendency to believe the pronouncements of fascist governments.

Speaking of ineffeciency and corruption, the Shenzhou program has cost about two billion dollars over the past ten years. I wonder how ineffecient and corrupt NASA would have to be to get that kind of performence for that amount of money.

No, Mark. Dwayne and I don't believe that there is a space race between China and the US because there's little evidence of a space race between China and the US, and to think that there is is simply wishful thinking.

And, no, I don't consider two billion dollars for two manned spaceflights, two years apart, to be a bargain. Particularly when there's little reason to believe that the cost will come down, or the flight rate increase. The Chinese space program is purely for prestige, not for utility.

The two billion figure includes a development program and several unmanned test flights.

For a better analysis of the implications of the Chinese space program tan Dwayne's, CNA's Dean Cheng had some thoughts in a recent NPR story.

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=4955316

A click on LISTEN.

The two billion figure includes a development program and several unmanned test flights.

I know that. I remain unimpressed.

For a better analysis of the implications of the Chinese space program tan Dwayne's, CNA's Dean Cheng had some thoughts in a recent NPR story.

In which the word "better" translates as "more in conformance with Mark Whittington's wet dreams"?

I doubt if you usually consider analyses by NPR to be "better." I'm amused that you consider this one to be.

The analysis is not "by" NPR but by a senior analyst at a think thank that Dwayne cites to buttress his position.

And, really, Rand. "Wet dreams?" Is that the crux of your argument? I feel very sad for you.

Do you believe the press reporting out of China about a space race with the US, or do you believe what you hear on National Partisan Radio? I put forward that neither matters much. Let time play out and you'll get your answer. Besides, once NASA gets shown up by private industry, the whole thing will continue not to matter.

Mac

I've been waiting for NASA to be "shown up" by private industry for over twenty five years. I suspect that NASA will wind up subsidizing private industry in the end. Not a bad thing, IMHO.

"Wet dreams?" Is that the crux of your argument?

No. Thanks for playing, though.

I feel very sad for you.

Spare me.

Mac:

If you consider it a race between nations rather than a race between national space programs, I'm not sure how private industry showing up NASA would be relevant to the (hypothetical) space race between the U.S. and China.

/devil's advocate

> I've been waiting for NASA to be "shown up" by private industry for over twenty five years.

Mark has forgotten how Scaled Composites sent more astronauts into space than NASA in 2005. A year when Mark was still saying that without Constellation capsules, human spaceflight in America would come to an end.

And how private enterprise is developing new spacecraft, while NASA is merely doing paper studies of how to recreate old Apollo capsules.

Of course, Mark will say reducing the cost of access to space doesn't count. All that counts is spending as much money as possible to go the Moon, Mars, and Alpha Centauri. :-)`

Mark was fairly careful in his wording Ed.

When alt-space puts people in orbit and brings them back, then you'll have a point.

Until then, I'm with Mark on this.

Actually Edward is incorrect more than usual on one point. NASA sents even astronauts into space this year. Scaled Composites sent two (with one flying twice.)

> Mark was fairly careful in his wording Ed.

> When alt-space puts people in orbit and brings them back, then you'll have a point.

> Until then, I'm with Mark on this.

Mark did not say "orbit," he said "space."

When private enterprise reaches orbit, I'm sure you and Mark will say that doesn't count because it's not Alpha Centauri. :-0

> NASA sents even astronauts into space this year. Scaled Composites sent two (with one flying twice.)

Mark, ignoring the fractured syntax of your "careful wording," NASA did not "sents even astronauts" into orbit last year.

Unless "sents even" means "bought Soyuz rides for."

So, you consider buying rides on a foreign spacecraft to be a greater accomplishment than developing a new spacecraft?

Interesting. :-)

>When private enterprise reaches orbit, I'm sure you and Mark will say that doesn't count because it's not Alpha Centauri. :-0

It entirely depends on how "private" enterprise does it and the costs involved, but generally I'll be extremely happy to see it happen.

I will not, however, get wound up by faith based excitment about it.

Hunter: Mac:

If you consider it a race between nations rather than a race between national space programs, I'm not sure how private industry showing up NASA would be relevant to the (hypothetical) space race between the U.S. and China.

/devil's advocate

&*^&^&*! advocates....(grin) Any national space program is considered "the nation" when a competition is viewed. I'm merely guilty of grouping...which I hate...like when my wife says, "Men are always...(whatever)" I hate being grouped. See? I told you it doesn't matter anyway!

Ed, I think Marc meant "sent seven." Let's not make petty attacks on simple typos.

I believe there was, in fact, one Shuttle launch this year? Seven people. He's got you on that point.

> Ed, I think Marc meant "sent seven." Let's not make petty attacks on simple typos.

> I believe there was, in fact, one Shuttle launch this year? Seven people. He's got you on that point.

Except that I was talking about last year (which should have been obvious, if you know when Mike Melvill flew).

Yes, NASA managed to fly one Shuttle flight this year, at a cost of $5 billion. Down from 8 flgihts for $5 billion a few years ago. If Mark wants to call that an accomplishment, he's welcome to.

It's amazing what Shuttle-huggers will believe. :-)