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« "Flock Of Dodos" | Main | Why EML1? »

The State Of Play

The latest newsletter of the Space Access Society is out, and it has a long, but good rundown of the current situation in space transportation (at least that portion of the industry that actually promises to reduce costs and improve reliability).

We are seeing signs that this industry is growing up fast. One trend is specialization - rocketship builders are starting to differentiate from rocketship operators, something that happened to the air transport industry too around the time it was getting serious.

Another is that rocketship builders are beginning to access a novel method of finance for this industry: Paying customers, both government agencies wanting a mix of tech development and delivered payloads, and commercial operators wanting actual ships to fly.

And while most company finance in this industry is still via some variant of "angel investors", aka wealthy individuals, there have been a number of signs that the venture capital industry may not be that far behind. First there's all the positive press buzz of the last year, of course. Never underestimate the herd factor in investment trends.

There are also signs of a fundamental VC investment requirement firming up: The exit strategy. One time-honored way to cash out investment in an innovative startup is by selling out to an established player that wants a foot in the new door. Arianespace showed up at the X-Prize Cup's Personal Spaceflight Symposium last fall "looking for possible connections" in this new industry. We've seen indications the US launch majors too are keeping a close eye on developments among the startups. Looking to eventually buy what they can't foster internally? It wouldn't be unprecedented.

I think we're a long way off from a rocketcom bubble (that would be fun, for a while...), but it's nice to see the money finally starting to flow.

It also announces the final date and location of the next Space Access conference, which is a must-go for people really into this subject.

Posted by Rand Simberg at February 21, 2006 05:20 AM
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Thanks for the plug, Rand! That's Space Access '06, April 20-22 in Phoenix Arizona, two and a half days of immersion in the new low-cost launch industry, info at http://www.space-access.org/updates/sa06info.html. Y'all come!

Henry Vanderbilt
Space Access '06 Conference Manager

Posted by at February 21, 2006 07:04 PM


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