I'm not a big fan of web surveys, viewing them more as entertainment than providing useful data, but for those interested, Phil Bowermaster has a new one on predictions for space activities.

Well, as Letterman always says about Stupid Pet Tricks: this is for entertainment purposes only. Please, folks, no wagering!

On the other hand, when a wager is involved -- a la prediction markets -- we begin to approach something that might have value other than pure entertainment.

Thanks for the link.

Half of this survey is too vague to answer. Definitions of "permanent space settlement" (do permanent bases count, or do people need to be having kids there), "true commercial" (by what definition hasn't this already happened?), and "flight to another star system" (starwisp, colony, or something in between?) would be nice.

Roy --

Unfortunately, there's a trade-off between clarifying what terms mean and keeping people's attention long enough to complete the survey. In the interests in keeping it entertaining (see previous comments) I may have overdone it in the direction of simplicity.

One of the ideas I've been exploring is a prediction market that works on two tiers. One tier would be a simple choose-the-outcome interface, not unlike this survey. The other would be more like a wiki, where individuals could write brief scenarios explaining how the outcome would be achieved. People playing the market would choose both the outcome and what it means. You get a nice payoff if you choose the right outcome, but a much better payoff if you choose the right scenario.

"When rich full sensory virtual reality becomes possible (2020-2030 according to Kurzweil) Telepresence in very accurate virtual environments may be very satisfying and more acceptable than long seperation from a humanity entering a technological singularity."

Uh, is this guy saying, just computer-generate yourself an 'alien' environment to live in, and stay home?

When the flight technology becomes sufficently mature and inexpensive, some people (even post-Singularity, I'd think) will go out there partly because they *want* a 'long seperation from humanity.'

This guy clearly would never have sailed with Magellan, if he can't bear to be away from home (and still with the advantage of increasingly delayed communications with home, if desired) for extended periods...

Or maybe he meant real telepresence in a literal environment, and ignored/dismissed speed of light delays?

Intrade will do a listing for every $5k in liquidity. I'll list some stuff if the SpaceShot launch does well.