Poor Mark Whittington. He continues to grasp at any straw that offers him hope of the Great Race with the yellow hordes, despite their obvious slow pace and uncertain plans for their human spaceflight program.

Sadly for him, Dwayne Day sets the record straight, in comments:

I'm increasingly surprised by the shallowness of the coverage that the Chinese space program is receiving from spacedaily.com's Australian commentator. See, for instance, here.

The commentator, Morris Jones, speculates based upon limited knowledge and data. For starters, he was not even _at_ the talk by Mr. Luo Ge (I was), and is making his judgments based upon a Reuters news article. That article was essentially accurate, but did not discuss Luo's comments in detail or really in context. Thus any conclusions that one draws from the article are going to be a distorted assessment of what Luo actually said.

Read all, if you're interested in this subject.

"Yellow hordes", Rand? Get thee to sensitivity training (g).

Is China "racing" the US to the Moon? I don't know, but then neither does Mark or Rand. What I do know is that they most certainly could be without there being much evidence.

The USSR was racing the US to the Moon, yet there was so little evidence of their effort that they got away with claiming, to save face once they lost, that they were not.

Who can say that China most definitely is not interested in beating the US to the Moon? Who can say that if they did have an effort underway to beat the US to the Moon that such an effort would definitely be detectible in the ways some assume it would be?

No one has the answer, but it would be foolish for us to assume that China has no interest in beating the US to the Moon for the propaganda value it would be to them and it would be equally foolish to believe that they are without a doubt bent on that path.

The truth of the matter is and the wise course for the US to take (if you believe the US should have a federally funded space program at all) is to realize that China is a serious competitor in space, that we should keep an eye on what they are doing in space and that we should take nothing granted as far as what we believe that can or cannot accomplish.

Indeed. I believe the correct term is "Yellow Peril"

The USSR was racing the US to the Moon, yet there was so little evidence of their effort that they got away with claiming, to save face once they lost, that they were not.

They'd have a lot harder time hiding their program today, with modern surveillance techniques. The Chinese show no signs of developing the heavy-lift booster that conventional wisdom indicates is necessary for such a feat, and if they're going to do it via orbital rendezvous, their pace is slower than that of a snail.

The truth of the matter is and the wise course for the US to take (if you believe the US should have a federally funded space program at all) is to realize that China is a serious competitor in space.

They are no more serious than we are (which is to say, not much). Our seriousness extends only to maintaining jobs, not making progress.

>
Actually, if Luo Ge is telling the truth and the Chinese will have their Long March 5 by 2010, it would put the Chinese in a good position to do a lunar effort around the time (or maybe a little before) we intend to. Not quite as slow as a snail, as you seem to wish.

By the way, what Cecil said is quite correct.

Not quite as slow as a snail, as you seem to wish.

I've no wishes in the matter, Mark--that would be you. I'm indifferent to what the Chinese do, because they show no signs of doing it affordably or on anything resembling a large scale.

Conventional wisdom is that a heavy lift vehicle is desirable, not "necessary" to land humans on the Moon. If you don’t have the ability to build a heavy lift vehicle there certainly are other ways of getting enough mass in orbit to launch humans to the Moon.

As for their experience in orbital rendezvous, how long was it from the US’ first such feat until July 20, 1969? Judging from history the Chinese have plenty of time to learn orbital rendezvous (and docking) prior to 2018.

One wonders what would happen if a Chinese government official indicated interest in developing a highly operable, reusable spaceplane with military capabilities -- the sort of vehicle that would given the Chinese military total control of outer space.

Would Mark reverse course and finally support US work on low-cost access to space, because the Chinese are doing it?

Or would he continue to insist that Apollo on Steroids is the only Politically Correct policy for the US government?

If you want to be paranoid about the Chinese, how sure can we be that they aren't working on such a vehicle? The probably have the technology to build it, especially if they worked with the Russians or Indians. Unlike an HLV, which needs huge launch pads, such a vehicle could be designed to use ordinary runways, so there might be no sign such a program was under weigh until they rolled it out of the hangar.

Why doesn't Mark worry about that? Why is he paranoid about the possibility that China might go to the Moon and scarf a few moonrocks, but apparently unconcerned about the possibility of their developing a weapon that would give them military dominance over the entire globe?

As for their experience in orbital rendezvous, how long was it from the US’ first such feat until July 20, 1969? Judging from history the Chinese have plenty of time to learn orbital rendezvous (and docking) prior to 2018.

Of course they do. My point is that it will become apparent long before they get to the moon that they are going to the moon. They won't "sneak up on us." There is currently little to indicate that they are, and sorry, but there's currently no race, no matter how much Mark hopes for one.

Didn't the Chinese already do orbital rendezvous and docking?

Is China "racing" the US to the Moon?

No, no they are not. We can tell this in several ways. Firstly, they have made fairly clear statements (despite the hyperventilation of some in the west) about their ambitions (which are pretty modest), and have stuck to that so far. Secondly, the externally observable elements of their program (and there are many, especially due to heavy reliance on Russian experience and facilities) do not show evidence of a program substantially larger in scope than the Chinese have announced in public. Thirdly, the pace of their program to date has been sloooooow. Much slower than the start of any manned spaceflight program to date. Space "races" require front-loaded experience, they require veteran astronauts and ground-crew, they require a lot more than what China has put forth to date. If they are "racing", they are certainly taking the long way around.

Sure, it's POSSIBLE in some abstract, theoretical way that China has a sooper-sekret space program that they will unleash at some time in the future, but there's no evidence for it at all. It would be equally possible for China to be working on a crash program to create a time machine, but there's no evidence for that either.

Sorry Robin, but at this point in a race, if it exists, what external signs would you expect to see? They are planning to build a medium lift vehicle that could be used in a manned lunar landing, I don't know that is what they intend to use it for just as you cannot be sure that they are not. Are they making plans for a Chinese LM in secret right at this moment? They certainly could be and it wouldn't be "externally observable", and that isn't abstract or theoretical it's just flat out possible. As for their public pronouncements, if you believe everything China says in public I’ve got a bridge I’ll sell you real cheap. They also denied having “sooper-sekret” sub bases carved into solid rock cliffs, but they have ‘em.

None of us really know, but the only ones who I’ve seen dealing in absolutes are the ones who say that Chine absolutely is NOT racing anyone to the Moon. In doing so they are less right, IMHO, than those who say that China very well could be doing so.

"Sorry Robin, but at this point in a race, if it exists, what external signs would you expect to see?"

and

"...but the only ones who I’ve seen dealing in absolutes are the ones who say that Chine absolutely is NOT racing anyone to the Moon. In doing so they are less right, IMHO, than those who say that China very well could be doing so."

That kind of argument doesn't work in a court of law, and it doesn't work in debate club, and it doesn't work in any other realm. You're not allowed to say that "the defendent _could_ be guilty" and then require proof that he's not. You have to provide the the evidence for your case, otherwise, we are left with the realm of all possibilities, which is illogical.

You're also missing the point. Various people have made claims that China _IS_ racing to the Moon, and have used the 2017 lunar landing date as proof.

But people who claim that they ARE have to provide evidence that they are. They cannot legitimately claim that the Chinese are racing and then require others to prove that they are not. If the world worked that way, then every lunatic on a street corner could demand that people prove that his crazy theories are wrong. Evidence. Evidence. Evidence.

By your reasoning, monkeys _could_ fly outta my butt. They're not, however...

Who said we were in a court of law? Who said we were trying to definitively settle this one way or the other, IE China is or is not racing to the Moon?

All I am saying is that anyone who states definitively what Chinas’ intentions are with respect to putting Chinese on the Moon in whatever time period is blowing smoke, because none of us know.

And for Rand to keep baiting Mark, and Mark baiting Rand…. well it has just gotten to the point of childishness.

If China and the US both intend to put people on the Moon then it is a race (by the allowable range of definitions for the word.) Glad I could settle that argument for ya all. What does it mean? Nothing really.

The big question is are the Chinese friend or foe and what does their moving toward the high ground mean strategically. I think we should be watchful rather than panicked, realizing that unless something triggers a more immediate hostile action we've got decades to work the problem (preparing for the worst and hoping for the best.)

China in 2006 is not the same as the Soviet Union in 1967. Nor is the world, of course. Note that even in the '60s the US government had knowledge of the secret (and later covered up) Soviet lunar space program. Not only is China today a much more open country than the USSR in the '60s but the world has much better means of obtaining information than it did back then (orbital imagery, for example).

Then, of course, there is the tiny little fact that Chinese astronauts are trained at Star City in Russia. This not only allows the world to track the degree of training the Chinese astronaut pool goes through but also the size of that pool. Note that the training is fairly ordinary and the pool is small. More importantly, it indicates that the Chinese do not, yet, believe it necessary to have their own training facilities. Likely because, as their continued statements would indicate, they do not plan on having an overly aggressive or expansive manned spaceflight program.

Every piece of actual evidence points toward a modest, slow Chinese manned spaceflight program. The ONLY thing that indicates a potential Chinese space race is rampant and unfounded speculation. Period.