Speaking of hurricanes, while the Atlantic remains quiet, the biggest storm of the season so far is pounding the Phillippines, and due to hit Manila directly. It unexpectedly went from a tropical storm to a Category 4 typhoon in twenty-four hours. It just shows that we have a long way to go to be able to predict these things. It also shows that we don't pay much attention to tropical cyclones unless they affect the US, because I haven't seen anyone reporting it.

Anyway, the lack of predictability brings up our immediate dilemma. We're about to go out of town for ten days. Should we shutter up before we leave (which would be a royal pain, amidst the other packing)? It seems unlikely that there will be a storm that hits south Florida during the first week of October, but you never know.

The thing you'd have to look at is if there are any tropical waves coming off the coast of Africa that could realistically develop and make landfall within 10 days. As a Space Coaster since '79, it's my experience they USUALLY take longer than that to wind up and strike, so you're probably pretty safe. (Please note the careful use of modifiers. :-)

I hadn't heard anything about this. Someone definitely should be reporting these things even if it's outside the US. It's kind of a big deal.

I think David's got your answer. It might be nipping at your heels as you close up when you get back. But I doubt a storm could brew up and cross the ocean and get into your neighborhood in less than 10 days.

Actually, this time of year they can form in the Bahamas or the Gulf, and come from seemingly nowhere in a hurry. They don't need to come all the way from Africa.

Back when I lived on Okinawa, we would get about 4 big typhoons each year. Of course it wasn't that big a deal since all the houses were made from concrete, but I remember there was always huge devestation to small, temporary structures. (Like our school!)

For example, last year Wilma formed in the western Carribean, then rapidly intensified (1 --> 5, IIRC) in about 12 hours.

Back when I was in the Philippines, two of my mission companions were from the part of the Philippines that receives the most regular pounding of typhoons. Apparently down there most of the houses are concrete too. Of course, most of them were concrete even up where I was at (northwest of Manila, out in Zambales and Pangasinan), even though most typhoons were down to Catergory 2 or less by the time they reach there. I was out and about during a Category 2 typhoon out there. Wasn't too bad. Flooding is an issue though as they mention.

I'm glad that most of the folks I know out there are on the far side of the island from the typhoon, and hope that those who aren't so lucky can ride this one out.

~Jon