Between the Arabs and the Persians.

I do think that the current oil prices reflect the use of Saudi Arabia's "oil weapon," except instead of wielding it by forcing prices up (OPEC no longer has the clout to do that unilaterally) they're forcing them down and starving Iran (not to mention Venezuela) of oil revenues. In fact, I'd be surprised if this wasn't one of the things that Secretary Rice discussed with them a few weeks ago.

Indeed. The US and Israel will now ally with the Salafi Sunni (who were behind 9/11) in order to contain Iran.

Welcome to the Middle East. ;-)

= = =

PS: Rice isn't calling the shots, the Saudis were telling her (& Cheney) the facts of life. After reading them both the "Riot Act"

Rice isn't calling the shots, the Saudis were telling her (& Cheney) the facts of life. After reading them both the "Riot Act"

Really? Were you there? Do you have a transcript?

Do you? :-)

No, but then, I'm not making authoritative claims about it, as you are.

I never cease to be surprised to think that you're supposed to be a lawyer, Bill.

Rand, from your link:

For all those decades Saddam Hussein was in power, American suggestions, or attempts, to overthrow the dictator of Iraq were always met with resistance from the Saudis. Most Americans could not understand this, even when the Shia angle was mentioned. It must have been something to do with oil. It actually has little to do with oil. It's all about which form of Islam is more "correct." Since 1979, Iran has been run by conservative clergy, and these guys wanted to rule the world. To the Saudis, only Iraq, and its ruthless leader Saddam Hussein, stood in the way. The 1980-88 war between Iraq and Iran was seen as a desperate fight to contain the Shia menace. It was thus, with much sadness, that Arabs viewed the defeat, and recent demise, of Saddam Hussein. For many Sunnis in the region, Saddam was their champion.

The Sunnis see America as being stupid, or greedy to control Iraqi oil, or both, in their overthrow of Saddam. Because of this U.S. action, the Shia, and thus, Iran, controls Iraq.

The Saudis are on record opposing the 2003 removal of Saddam. For the reasons given in the quote.

Iranian ascendancy scares the be-jeebers out of the Saudis and our Iraqi mess is empowering Iran.

Rice and Cheney did not go to the Kingdom to be listened to, they went to listen.

Rice and Cheney did not go to the Kingdom to be listened to, they went to listen.

They went both to listen and to talk (that's why one makes such visits) and you don't know what the Saudis said. It certainly doesn't follow from your premises.

Fair enough.

Anyway, working with the Arab League against Iran simply is smart diplomacy, right now, and something I fully support. Kudos to Rice for playing ball.

Also, tossing the Gulf States a bone by "being nice" to the Palestinians (even for just a little while) will bolster their ability to cooperate with us in containing Iran.

The Saudi's have been supporting Sunni insurgents in Iraq with cash and by allowing their own jihadist-types to cross the border. This has resulted in Shia militias gaining more and more backing. The Saudi's have also done little to help with the high oil price the last year or so.

My guess is Rice and Cheney told the Saudi's (a) to increase oil output to starve the Iranians of oil wealth (b) to stop messing around in Iraq. If they did not the US might withdrawal which would result in the ethnic cleansing of Sunni from Iraq.

I do think that the current oil prices reflect the use of Saudi Arabia's "oil weapon"...

Well, that or the fact that immediately previous oil prices went sky-high. You know...as if speculators bought up a lot of oil futures last summer, bidding the price up, and now they've got too much of it and it's being dumped...kind of like the real-estate market...

It's worth noting the price now ($51/barrel) is about what it was last winter ($57/barrel in February '06). There was a spike last summer (reaching $77/barrel in Sept '06).

The other thing Condi Rice did right was get the Israelis to release that Palestinian money.

Possibly a quid pro quo with the Saudis and the Egyptians.

On the conspiracy front, I'm with Carl. It never ceased to amaze me that as good news came out about the supply and reserves, that within a day, I'd hear some speculation that something bad would happen resulting in the price being driven up. Further, for the anti-Bush crowd with money (Soros?), this was a win-win-win-win. It made Bush look bad domestically, it gave a point of argument against Halliburton, it forced individuals to consider a truly Green philosophy, and oh yes, the prospectors made off like bandits.

Indeed, the higher oil prices made the UN oil-for-food scandal more lucrative for those who took the options from Saddam. Options have a great way of causing people to want to inflate the values of a good over a short amount of time.

The damage is done now. Saddam is dead, and oil-for-food died earlier anyway. The Democrats are in control of Congress, and Bush is a lame duck. The lower classes need the break, and SUVs are starting to become less common than hybrids. Oh yes, it is also time to cash in.

It is just a bonus if it hurts Iran and destabilizes the Middle East region while Bush is still Command in Chief.

My $.02, and just a theory.

If there is a coming war between the Arabs and the Persians,

(1) Who will the Iraqi Shia (Arabs) be aligned with? And how does that impact our goals for Iraq? Will we then genuinely be fighting both the Shia and the Sunni in Iraq? Our fight with some elements of the Shia would probably broaden into a fight against every Shia.

(2) Are the Saudis, Egyptians etc. simply setting us up to do the fighting? i.e. initiate the war and then back out in the name of Islamic solidarity leaving us stuck. I wouldn't be surprised at all if we were shafted. Wouldn't that be a very appealing tactic for the Arab Sunnis. Blame America will rise to a higher level.

(3) Apparently there is a big split within the Saudi leadership on this ...if we align oursleves with the "wrong" side are we setting the stage for the end of the Kingdom of Saud? Now that would shake up the oil prices a bit, wouldn't it?

So, who is in charge of thinking out this whole process? Condi and Cheney in their spare time, when they aren't trying to figure out Iraq? I'm skeptical that we aren't being walked into a (oops) qaugmire.

I know it's not sexy, but the only reason oil prices jumped up and jumped down is investor sentiment, not the Saudi's. At one time I invested in the stock market as a pure fundametalist, but then I found a large number of "technicians" drive the market. It moves for no reason, just guesses and wants and piss poor mathmatics. Anything else you see in this is from the same part of thwe human brain that Charlie Sheen relies on.

I totally agree with Brad. The oil prices are not influenced by one group or organization. Even OPEC, try as they might, are incapable of single handedly affecting the bottom line price. The nebulous network of investors and speculators with varying degrees of interest and influence play the biggest part.

Even OPEC, try as they might, are incapable of single handedly affecting the bottom line price.

Indeed, they've learned that driving the price up too high dilutes their influence in the market by making it more cost-effective to pump reserves that would otherwise be too expensive to produce. There's an oil boom in Wyoming precisely because of the high price of oil on the world market -- those wells go quiet if the world price drops to, say, 2003 levels.

Brad and Josh,

I accept your points which is why I include the "theory". My only supporting evidence that my thoery could be valid is the corruption in the UN oil-for-food scandal. I am very amazed at how insidious that scandal is, how deep the corruption went, and how stunningly it is being ignored. There are some people with powers that have no qualms for using them for evil and can get away with it.

If indeed a war looms between the Arabs and the Persians, then the correct course of action would involve selling weapons to both sides and staying the hell out of it. Both sides are the enemy. Even police forces are very loath to stop red-on-red violence.

With one caveat; if the conflict spreads anywhere else, then come down on those responsible like a megaton of bricks. Which is also the attitude of cops.