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« The Bridge Collapse | Main | Robot Soldiers »

Will Climate Change Make Hurricanes Worse?

Maybe, but there's zero evidence of it to date:

Last month, Roger Pielke, Jr., director of the Center for Science and Technology Policy Research at the University of Colorado, released the most comprehensive paper ever published on the subject of damage trends in Atlantic hurricanes. The article will appear soon in the peer-reviewed journal Natural Hazards Review.

Is the planet warmer than it was? Yes. Is there any trend in hurricane-related damages in the United States, where good records of damages exist? After accounting simultaneously for inflation, population, and property values, no.

I always find it irritating when the media report this or that hurricane as the "most expensive ever," as though there's some worsening trend in hurricanes, without putting it into context. Yes, hurricane damage will increase in the future, but not because hurricanes are getting worse, or more frequent. It's because the value of the property at risk continues to increase. Fortunately, so does the general wealth of the society, though we do need to solve the moral hazard of subsidizing people who choose to live in hurricane-prone areas. But selfishly, I hope not before I sell the house in Florida.

Posted by Rand Simberg at August 04, 2007 02:50 PM
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