Some fashion advice for Osama, from the Manolo.

FWIW, I remain unconvinced that it really is Osama.

[Update late morning]

Michael Ledeen is skeptical, too.

[Another update a few minutes later]

And then there's this outtake from the video.

[Update at 11:30 AM]

Here's another theory about the video:

All references to current events, such as the 62nd anniversary of the U.S. atomic bombing of Japan, and Sarkozy and Brown being the leaders of France and the UK, respectively, occur when the video is frozen!

Actually, my strongest reason to think that bin Laden is at room temperature? Because the CIA says he's still alive.

Good for you, Rand. On the lack of authenticity angle.

In my opinion, the transcript reads like it was written by some guys at RedState looking to parody the net-roots blog-o-sphere.

Also, other reports are that the video has not yet been released on Islamic web sites and we intercepted it by hacking into their computer networks.

If that is true, wasn't it darn stupid to reveal that capability over an inconsequential video?

Kinda like telling Chalabi we cracked Tehran's codebook and like seeking a PR bounce from revealing that we could listen in to bin Laden's sat phone conversations.

That beard looks fake. He is a fakir.

Bin Laden or not, I suspect he wears no beard.

Ah, the Manolo! I read his blog all the time. He put me onto my favorite pair of slingbacks. Superfantastic!

>>>>>Actually, my strongest reason to think that bin Laden is at room temperature? Because the CIA says he's still alive.

I would guess that room temperature in his current residence is considerably warmer than considered comfortable. Unless you have better information on room temperature in Hades.

Rand, can you explain the rubric you follow to determine when you believe the CIA is reliable and when you believe the CIA is not reliable?

Yes, easily. I never believe the CIA is reliable.

Does that help?

Thanx! Yes it does help to clarify this:

Actually, my strongest reason to think that bin Laden is at room temperature? Because the CIA says he's still alive.

So, it is not a very strong reason, even if it is your strongest reason :

Yes, easily. I never believe the CIA is reliable. Does that help? Posted by Rand Simberg at September 9, 2007 12:58 PM

Bill, can you explain the rubric you follow to determine when you believe the CIA is reliable and when you believe the CIA is not reliable?

or

Bill, can you explain the rubric you follow to determine when you believe General Petraeus is reliabile and when you believe General Petraeus is not reliable?

Leland,
you're only supposed to believe the generals when they say what you want to hear. If the generals agree with you, they are smart. If the generals don't agree with you, they are liars. There is no simple option of being wrong or disagreement.

My guess is that Osama will become the new Dread Pirate Roberts.

The most interesting theory I've seen floating around is that maybe bin Laden has had a transplant to fix the serious kidney problems he is supposed to have had. Hence, loss of hair due to side-effects of the drugs required to prevent rejection and the need for him to put on a wig and false beard.

Of course, that would only be possible if he's been hiding somewhere with better amenities than a cave, such as in Iran or a safe house provided by sympathizers in Pakistan.