Let's hope so. At least, that is, as long as they don't actually have nukes...

Why would the Syrian government be so tight-lipped about an act of war perpetrated on their soil? The first half of the answer lies in this story that appeared in the Israeli media last month (8/13): Syria's Antiaircraft System Most Advanced In World. Syria has gone on a profligate buying spree, spending vast sums on Russian systems, 'considered the cutting edge in aircraft interception technology.' Syria now 'possesses the most crowded antiaircraft system in the world,' with 'more than 200 antiaircraft batteries of different types,' some of which are so new that they have been installed in Syria 'before being introduced into Russian operation service.' While you're digesting that, take a look at the map of Syria: Notice how far away Dayr az-Zawr is from Israel. An F15/16 attack there is not a tiptoe across the border, but a deep, deep penetration of Syrian airspace. And guess what happened with the Russian super-hyper-sophisticated cutting edge antiaircraft missile batteries when that penetration took place on September 6th. Nothing.

El blanko. Silence. The systems didn't even light up, gave no indication whatever of any detection of enemy aircraft invading Syrian airspace, zip, zero, nada. The Israelis (with a little techie assistance from us) blinded the Russkie antiaircraft systems so completely the Syrians didn't even know they were blinded. Now you see why the Syrians have been scared speechless. They thought they were protected - at enormous expense - only to discover they are defenseless. As in naked. Thus the Great Iranian Freak-Out - for this means Iran is just as nakedly defenseless as Syria.

Couldn't happen to a nicer government, if true.

Ah, the Emporer's new clothes!

There is another component to this story that must not be forgotten and that is the Russian one. Maybe there will be a little less sabre rattling from Putin. I wonder if Syria and Iran will demand a refund.

Perhaps Russia forgot to mention that Syria and the Islamic Republic needed to order, purchase, and install the universal transmogrifier to make the system work against Western aircraft.

Oops!

The fact that Turkey approved Israeli use of their air space for this operation can't be helping them accept what happened either.

This is the point at which you carefully release to the Iranians, through your double agents, the information that the Russians (or Russian traitors - either works)sold the technical information on the system to the Israelis. A little distrust can go a long way.

I suspect that this is a demonstration of how expensive new kit is useless without the expertise to employ it effectively. Making a sophisticated air defence system work properly requires very highly trained personnel, lots of planning, and lots of practice. I doubt very much that the decrepit Syrian military is able to provide all that.

It's like a bad golfer buying the same type of clubs as Tiger Woods in the hope that this will magically transform his game. No matter how good they are, he still keeps losing because he doesn't know how to use them.

Can any of you provide any evidence that the described incursion and attack really happened to begin with?

Ah, Phil attempts the "the moon landings were faked" maneuver.

K:

While you're at it, don't forget to leak to the Russians that the Iranians/Syrians/Russians sold you the information, too...

Networked digital systems are vulnerable to
cyber attack via internet systems or
through the management systems.

a trojan horse implanted in, will,
oftentimes produce interesting behaviour
if the OPFOR knows how to activate it
through the data stream.

essentially beam in a coded pulse, that enters the
radar receiver, the magic key allows the system
to lose key traces or even shut down. Done properly
this can be embedded in the compilers or systems tools.
The iranians are smart, they will probably start a
crash program to write new tools, write new software,
write new executives. This should be working in 2-5 years.

this is how microsft and the NSA can tap your windows
computer.

Of course the key to any secret weapon is to never use them.
If the israelis had such a trick, they've betrayed it's
existence.

Get out the tinfoil hats Anon before MS and the govt take you over.

It's useful to recall the air battles over the Bekaa Valley back in the 1980s.

Then, too, it was the Israelis against the Syrians, and the results were lopsided. If I remember right, it was something like 85:0, and that was just among the fighter aircraft.

In addition, and what's often forgotten, is that the Israelis also destroyed nineteen SAM batteries---for no combat aircraft losses. This was a startling achievement, especially since in the previous major air war (the 1973 war), the Israelis had suffered significant air losses due to SAMs.

Then, as now, this wasn't surplus equipment, either. The Syrians were flying and manning some of the best stuff Moscow had to offer.

It would not be surprising if the Iranians were very nervous.

Great post & article, I hope it's true too (and don't really see any reasons why it shouldn't be).

By the way I don't think Phil Fraering intended his request to be read as a denial. I too would like more solid information (I haven't had the chance to search the usual places yet - been far too busy lately).

Precisely, Habitat Hermit.

While I _really really would_ like to believe that Israel just stopped Syria from getting The Bomb, I don't see a whole lot of real facts on the ground, and there are a lot of people playing telephone, if you know what I mean.

I wonder how much radar evasion in this case was a matter of flying a well planned route close to the ground where ground clutter would cover any radar return from the aircraft.

"essentially beam in a coded pulse, that enters the
radar receiver, the magic key allows the system
to lose key traces or even shut down."
Posted by anonymous at September 28, 2007 09:54 AM

Dude you've watched that terrible movie 'Independence Day' one to many times.

And why is that everytime Russian hardware gets smited that people start with the hand waving and say, "They just don't use it right". God help all the people that have to fly passenger aircraft over there because evidently not a single Syrian understands how to read a Radar screen.

I think the operators were just afraid to turn them on. I think they know how to use their equipment and just as well they understand just how effective anti-radiation munitions are. Turning your radar on is like putting up a big sign that says, "Hey blow me up, dawg!"

I wonder if, just conceivably, the Russians, trying to play both ends against the middle and still make a profit, couldn't possibly have deliberately sold the Syrians and Iranians defective systems, which defects are not apparent until the bombs start falling. Of course I also like the idea of the Syrian gunners sitting around not realizing its a bad idea to wait until the air raid is in progress before even turning your system on.

The Syrians are Arabs. It's well documented that Arabs in the military think that maintenance and training are for the lower orders to handle - they are still psychologically in the era when waving a scimitar in the air and yelling "Allah Akbar" was actually an effective way of doing battle. Arab soldiers have to be chivvied constantly into even cleaning their rifles. And that's why, if it ever comes to a stand-up fight, they will lose.

Unfortunately, Arabs are also the masters of the knife in the back.