Just in time for Noel, though it looks as though it's going to curve around and miss us. Actually, though, if it remains just a tropical storm, I wish it would come up and cross the lake, which is still five feet below normal after they drained it last year for the hurricanes that didn't happen.

So much for the dire hurricane predictions for this year, and the notion that global warming means that they'll be bigger and more frequent, and that it's already happening. So far, it's 2004-2005 that look anomalous.

Global warming caused the wildfires and they dried up the extra water in the atmosphere. Wait till next year!!

So much for the dire hurricane predictions for this year, and the notion that global warming means that they'll be bigger and more frequent, and that it's already happening.

Oh good grief. A predictions that hurricanes will, ON AVERAGE, become more frequent, isn't a prediction that they will become more frequent every year. This sort of sophomoric non sequitur just makes you look like you aren't interested in making sound arguments, or that you don't understand basic probability theory.

A predictions that hurricanes will, ON AVERAGE, become more frequent, isn't a prediction that they will become more frequent every year.

I didn't say it was. You're the one with the straw man here, not me.

Paul, is it your contention that no one has made the argument that hurricanes were going to be worse this year because of global warming, and that the 2005 season was a result of global warming?

We both know at least one poster to sci.space.* who has done so. I could find many other instances I'm sure, with a modest amount of googling. If the shoe doesn't fit you, don't wear it.

Weren't NOAA predicting an above-normal hurricane season for 2007?

If this is any indication of how well we understand the way our climate works, what does it tell us about other more widespread and long-term predictions?

Weren't NOAA predicting an above-normal hurricane season for 2007?

Yes, though that's a weather prediction, not a long-term climate prediction.

You don't have to google it. Just listen to global warming priestess Dr. Cullen and her acolytes at the Weather Channel.

Weren't NOAA predicting an above-normal hurricane season for 2007?

If this is any indication of how well we understand the way our climate works, what does it tell us about other more widespread and long-term predictions?

As they did for 2006 as well, before they revised it downwards in mid season, and rationalized the various reasons for the unexpected paucity of hurricanes. I would have much preferred (this year or last) a simple acknowledgement of "clearly we are not very good at predicting the number of hurricanes in a given year. The cause-effect cycle continues to elude our scientific models."

In fact, I predict that the NOAA will predict an above-average Hurricane season next year as well. I'm interested to see if my understanding of the effect of their politics on their science is greater than the NOAA's understanding of the effect of global warming on North American hurricanes.

Oops. In the message above, I should have the first 2 paragraphs in italics instead of just 1; they are both quotes from Dave. Sorry for the confusion.

The science here is evolving, of course, but I believe I've read that global warming is shaping up to have more influence on hurricane size than hurricane frequency.

You may not have noticed that the season began early and had two Cat 5 hurricanes in the first six. It's one of only four seasons with more than one Cat 5 hurricane and it's the only time two Atlantic hurricanes have ever made landfall at Category 5 strength in the same season. Neither happened to come north, so Anglo myopia kept kept people in the US from noticing them very much, and most have probably forgotten them by now.

The season isn't over, but it's already incorrect to call it a mild season from any point of view other than the aforementioned Anglo myopia.

Come on Gary, if you're going to call us racists, say it. You should amend your 2 CAT 5 statement to read since they have been tracking storms with modern techniques. Just before the Galveston disaster in Sept. 1900, the Weather Service believed Atlantic hurricanes never hit the Texas coast. They thought the storms would always turn towards Florida. Who knows how many Cat 5 storms hit before modern tmes.

Bill, it's not race, it's closer to nationalism. I should have used another word, rather than use the word that Latin Americans often use. It's been noted that North Americans tend to ignore anything that occurs below the Tropic of Cancer.

As for caveats, your point is valid. However, at least I provided some data, which is more than many of the other posters did, including you.