Jeff Manber writes that we should be inviting China to participate in the ISS program, and space in general.

I have a hard time getting worked up about it, either way. I don't consider either NASA or China relevant to the future of space at this point, though if they actually start flying this thing, I may start to take them more seriously.

It isn't paranoia if they really are out to get ya. Feeling secure because of having a greater economy won't mean much if our economy is reduced significantly in the first ten minutes of war.

Today, two of our carrier fleets could probably neutralize Chinas entire military, but the trends are very disturbing.

We have this amazing capacity to go from alarm to calm when danger is ever present. We can only trust that mature adults (FDT?) are watching out for us.

What i found bizarre in the Shenlong reports are statements like these:
"In addition, the U.S. must now develop a range of capabilities necessary to deter Chinese military attacks in space or from space. This may require reconsideration of the decision to retire the U.S. Space Shuttle fleet in 2010."

What the hell does retiring STS have to do with anything military ?

What the hell does retiring STS have to do with anything military?

Nothing. He doesn't know what he's talking about.

The development of an operational version of the Shelong suggests not only the need to develop are own capability along those lines, but space based weaponry to deal with it.

Why the heck would China go to war with the US? We're a humongous cash cow for the Chinese economy.

We (meaning US private companies as well as NASA and DOD) should develop responsive, reusable spacecraft for both military and commercial use, but I don't think it would be useful to get in a contest over a specific configuration of spaceplane (which looks a lot like things the US has already drop-tested, anyway).

The development of an operational version of the Shelong suggests not only the need to develop are own capability along those lines, but space based weaponry to deal with it.

As I've been telling you for years, Mark.

That's the problem with the Bush Vision of Space Exploration: It's confined entirely to NASA and ignores not only private enterprise but also other parts of the US government (e.g., the military). Or do you expect NASA to develop space weapons?

By the way, for anyone who hasn't figured out why it's called "Divine Dragon" -- in China, "dragon" refers not only to the mythical creature but also to dinosaurs. "Divine Dragon" is likely a reference to Dyna-Soar.

I don't think it would be useful to get in a contest over a specific configuration of spaceplane (which looks a lot like things the US has already drop-tested, anyway).

The problem, Patrick, is that we stopped with drop-testing, and the Chinese may not.

That and we have a President who talks about space in terms of "goals for NASA" rather than goals for America.

Unfortunately, Edward, if it were not for that speech four years ago, NASA would still be completely rudderless. Their captain may be steering the NASA ship onto the shoals, but it's better than the circle jerk that the agency has been performing for 35 years.

"I don't think it would be useful to get in a contest over a specific configuration of spaceplane (which looks a lot like things the US has already drop-tested, anyway)."

"The problem, Patrick, is that we stopped with drop-testing, and the Chinese may not."

And, sadly, we stopped Dynasoar just before getting even that far...

[b]in China, "dragon" refers not only to the mythical creature but also to dinosaurs[/b]

I just asked a Chinese co-worker if that's true. She said no, "dragon" and "dinosaur" are two different words in Chinese.

I just asked a Chinese co-worker if that's true. She said no, "dragon" and "dinosaur" are two different words in Chinese.

Possibly true, in some dialects. However, the first Chinese dinosaur bones were discovered in 265 AD, and for over a thousand years, they were thought to be dragons. Ask your friend if she knows about the powdered "dragon bones" that are sold as folk remedies.

Xu Xing, curator at the Institute of Vertebrate Paleontology and Paleoanthropology, has discovered numerous species including Mei long (feathered dragon), Dilong (emporer dragon), and Guanlong (crown dragon).

Patrick said...

"Why the heck would China go to war with the US?"

You might be asking this same question as the bombs drop. The answer would be, we are both a consumer of chinese products and an ideologic competitor. You can't assume they would choose consumer over competitor. The fact that they intend to build more military than they need for defense is very suggestive.

I too hope they share your reasoning, but it would be foolish to just assume it. Most games have just one winner. Are you sure they share your belief that the only way to win is not to play? (yes, a strange game - 'wargames')

Are you sure they share your belief that the only way to win is not to play?

Chinese generals are well versed in the art of winning without going to war. Sun Tzu said that "He who knows when to fight and when not to fight will always be victorious."

The possibility that Divine Dragon would be used to bomb the United States is remote, but its very existance could deter the United States from taking certain actions to protect its interests.

If we knew China could destroy US carriers from space (for example), we would be much more reluctant to use them to prevent a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, to threaten a Chinese ally like North Korea, or to break a Chinese blockade of, say, Japan.

By spending a relatively small sum on military spaceplanes, China could neutralize carrier battle groups costing tens of billions of dollars and radically alter the balance of power.