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Hope Remains

Regardless of the outcome of today's primary, Fred Thompson says that he's going on to Florida.

Why not? Unless he seriously underperforms the polls tonight, he's still got a significant amount of support, given that the winner is unlikely to even get a third of the vote. When people drop out for various reasons, their votes have to go somewhere. Where will Huckabee's voters go? Where will McCain's, if the only reason to vote for him is his Vietnam record and the war and they ignore his other positions? Not Huck. Probably not Romney. Though Rudy is a possibility. I don't think that this race will be anywhere close to settled this weekend.

There are a lot of people who will continue to send money to Fred as long as they think he has a chance. And there's still a non-zero possibility that this thing could go all the way to Minneapolis with no clear winner, which means that in a brokered convention, Thompson could have an edge. If this is true, and he remains in, I might even put up a Thompson sign on my lawn in Boca Raton.

Posted by Rand Simberg at January 19, 2008 02:06 PM
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