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« The Front Lines | Main | Scientific Fraud »

Realignment of Presidential Punters

As of 7:20 EST Friday, on Intrade, Obama has moved up to $0.48 on the dollar vs. $0.50 on the dollar for Clinton. Clinton is showing as a close third to Edwards in Iowa dropped her from a high of $0.70 last week.

On the Republican side, McCain is trading at about $0.31 on the dollar for Republican nomination now ahead of Giuliani at about $0.27 with Huckabee at $0.17 and Romney at $0.14. Giuliani was trading at $0.45 at the beginning of December.

A political stock market, a class of info markets, is the best known device for aggregating poll data and all other available data, public and private about the chances of the candidates.

Obama-NH last trade at $0.65 out of $1.00 vs. $0.44 for Clinton. For SC, it's Obama $0.62 with Clinton's last trade at $0.42. Some arbitrage opportunities here to lock in more than $1 by selling short each candidate. McCain is trading at $0.75 for NH and in SC, The Rest of the Field (There's no Huckabee security here for some odd reason) is trading at $0.40 vs. McCain's $0.30.

Posted by Sam Dinkin at January 04, 2008 05:46 AM
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