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Wrong Analogy

The inevitability about Hillary Clinton seems to be becoming an inevitability of her defeat in the primaries. Ron Fournier has a piece about her abandonment by her former allies/cronies/sycophants as Obama continues to build momentum:

"If (Barack) Obama continues to win .... the whole raison d'etre for her campaign falls apart and we'll see people running from her campaign likes rats on a ship," said Democratic strategist Jim Duffy, who is not aligned with either campaign.

Actually, I think that a better analogy would be a sinking ship abandoning a pair of rats.

But I think that he underestimates both the power and the ruthlessness of the Clintons. Perhaps after losing enough primaries, she'll bow out, but if so, I'll be very surprised. She's been working for this for decades, and I don't think that she'll give up without a very vicious fight, including a convention fight to seat the Michigan and Florida delagates, and a lot of behind-the-scenes pressure. In addition, we don't know how many FBI files they actually had access to back in the nineties, or whose they were, or what was in them. It's certainly conceivable that this is a weapon that they can hold over the head of the super delegates.

And even if she ends up not getting the nomination, I suspect that the Democrats will still have an ugly election in the fall. There are many ways that Billary can sabotage Obama's run without it being obvious that that's their intent (just as in fact Bill may have sabotaged Hillary's primary campaign, perhaps out of fear of being shown up by his wife as president). After all, if he wins, it makes it a lot harder for her to make another attempt in 2012. No matter who wins the nomination, I won't be surprised, nor will I be displeased, to see the civil war within the Democrat Party (that was started by the Clintons) continue.


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Mark wrote:

"without it being obvious that that's there intent"

Do you mean, "without it being obvious that that there's their intent", or something like that?

Jay Manifold wrote:

She's way ahead in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, which are the only remaining large-population states having Democratic primaries. I still don't see how she can lose the nomination. Having once won it, though, I don't see how she can win in the general.

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This page contains a single entry by Rand Simberg published on February 13, 2008 9:15 AM.

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