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A New Member?

Since Saddam was removed from power, there's been a vacancy in George Bush's three-nation "axis of evil." It looks like Syria has decided to apply for the position (and did so long ago, and even at the time was no doubt an unindicted co-conspirator--one wonders why Bush didn't include it in the beginning). Now, Austin Bay discusses the disturbing relationship between the two dictatorships of Syria and North Korea, and their increasingly evident first-strike posture.

Given Nancy Pelosi's idiotic visit with Assad earlier, and the dictator-soothing noises coming from the Obama campaign, Israel has to be very nervous about the Democrats running both the executive and legislative branch. Don't be surprised to see more strikes on Syria, and on Iran itself, this fall, if it looks like Obama is going to win, or does win--they won't want to wait until it's too late, after he's taken office in January.


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Marcus wrote:

Relax. McCain has it locked up.


Robert wrote:

Rand and Marcus both think McCain has it locked up. The polls show the race as very close. Rand and Marcus, what explanation do you have for the polls?

Regarding Syria and Iran, there is interesting analysis at (look for three recent posts). The Syrian reactor is discussed, and also the possiblitiy of attacks on Iran by the US. From time to time, the author tries to determine the likelihood of attacks by the US on Iran by tracking US aircraft carrier groups. Recently, there have been movements which indicate an attack is more likely than usual.

Rand Simberg wrote:

The polls show the race as very close. Rand and Marcus, what explanation do you have for the polls?

Polls are meaningless five months before an election. Most of those polls are adults, not likely voters, and most voters aren't paying serious attention yet, and won't until after the conventions. But considering how badly the Republicans were supposed to do this year, if they polls mean anything, the fact that they are tied up can't be good news for the Democrats, who were supposed to be running away with it.

Neither Democrat candidate can win. Hillary!'s negatives are too high for her to win, and Obama is far too left. And neither of them have been attacking each other on the basis for which they'll be attacked in the general election. In addition, the nominating race will be such that many supporters of one or the other will refuse to vote for the other if their own candidate doesn't get the nomination. This will particularly be the case for Obama's supporters, who will probably just stay home if Hillary! wins. And if Obama gets it, many of her supporters will go to McCain (with her secret blessing, since she wants to try again in 2012).

The Democrats have set themselves up to lose again.

Jim Davis wrote:

Hillary!'s negatives are too high for her to win, and Obama is far too left.

Not saying you're wrong, Rand, but both of those (with right instead of left) were said about Reagan in 1980. McCain can't count on the election winning itself.

Powerline Blog wrote:

John Hinderaker wrote today:

In my opinion, given that Obama has essentially zero record of working with Republicans, that was extremely well done. He makes you want to believe him.

I've said that I think John McCain is the early favorite to beat either Obama or Hillary Clinton, but Obama's performance today was a reminder of how formidable he will be in the fall, assuming that he gets the nomination--and that's apart from the fact that he is the greatest money-machine in the history of American politics.

Marcus wrote:

Obama has yet to undergo the level of scrutiny he will in the general election, and when he does, it's gonna be ugly, way ugly. The Republicans haven't started chewing on him yet. Wright isn't going to go away, because he doesn't WANT to go away.

McCain will win in a landslide of McGovernesque proportions.


Rand Simberg wrote:

Not saying you're wrong, Rand, but both of those (with right instead of left) were said about Reagan in 1980. McCain can't count on the election winning itself.

Well, they were wrong about Reagan, but I'm right. ;-)

I agree that McCain is capable of losing this election, primarily because he seems to go out of his way to piss off his own base, and when it comes to campaigning, he has an instinct for the capillary. But I expect the 527s to make up for it, and show either Obama or Hillary! for what they are.

Scott wrote:

Robert, aside from the worthlessness of polls five months out, looking at the electoral map shows that raw numbers can be decieving. I believe that any sensible person will stipulate that any democrat will win huge margins in NY, CA, and IL. However, this margin will still net that putative candidate the same number of electoral votes (the only ones that count) they would get if they won in a squeaker. Hence any Democratic candidate showing good poll numbers must also acknowlege that a substantial proportion of those poll numbers will be 'empty votes' that won't matter in a general election. The GOP, on the other hand, since it harvests votes from a much larger number of small (i.e. small population) states, has a better tooth to tail ratio of votes.

I rather doubt that we are looking at a McGovern quality collapse here, however. The population is too polarized, and the Dems do have numerous advantages working for them, not the least of which is that the GOP has run an abomidable campaign this year. A Dukakis level collapse (perhaps we should come up with a Richter-scale for electoral defeats?) seems more likely, where a moderate popular vote loss translates in a huge loss in electoral votes.

Either way, it should be fun watching Hillary's harridans or Obama's acolytes tearing their hair out and finding excuses for their candidate's failings.

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This page contains a single entry by Rand Simberg published on April 27, 2008 11:46 AM.

A British Perspective was the previous entry in this blog.

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