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The Dem's Dilemma

A concise description of it, over at Ann Althouse' site (see second comment):

Obama would not be getting the super delegates at this stage if he were not african american.

Hillary has the popular vote. Moreover, if primaries were held again today, Hillary would greatly expand her lead. She would beat Obama by 3/4 of a million votes in Florida and she would crush him in Michigan. In addition, Obama's big lead from Illinois would shrink.

Today compared to January, what we know about Hillary has not changed. This is not true for Obama. Everything we have learned about Obama in March-May has been negative. The truth is that Obama was unknown on Super Tuesday and people voted for him because they thought he was something other than what he is. Today Obama is more known and the trend of support for him in the battleground states is downward. The super delegates were put in place to pick up on these trends. Unfortuantely, the race issue has tied their hands.

Oh, well. Sux to be them.

It's a bed they made, though. Sleep tight.


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Leland wrote:

It was clever watching Obama take credit for "a majority of pledge delegates" the same day Hillary won more delegates then him, and she slaughtered him in Kentucky.

From a numbers game, I would think they would go for Hillary. After all, the black vote might get pissed, but they are not going to vote McCain. So, they'll either sit at home or fall in line to vote in smaller numbers.

If they go with Obama, the Dem's in Florida might just pull the lever for McCain, if they decide not to stay home. And oh yeah, ~50% of the US population is female while only 13% is male.

Republicans better savor this moment for all its worth, because the enjoyment will not last long. For all the potential problems Democrats are facing, the Republicans already know their fate. Most Republicans are ready to stay home because of McCain, and those down ballot Congressmen are not making a better case either.

K wrote:

No Rand. It SUX to be libertarian in the midst of an orgy of statism.

Would you care for cyanide or arsenic?

Paul F. Dietz wrote:

And oh yeah, ~50% of the US population is female while only 13% is male.

And the other 37% is...?

lmg wrote:

And the other 37% is...?


Leland wrote:



Leland wrote:

13% black... shouldn't post late at night.

Jason Bontrager wrote:

So if Hillary gets the popular vote, but Obama wins with the superdelegates, can we say that he was "selected, not elected"?


lmg wrote:

So if Hillary gets the popular vote, but Obama wins with the superdelegates, can we say that he was "selected, not elected"?

"Yes we can!"

Anonymous wrote:

The whole comment is ridiculous, and the link shows the idiocy of the linker.

Obama has about a 10 point national lead over Clinton in current polls and a 5 point lead over McCain. And its popular vote argument is deeply flawed - Caucus States would have generated far more votes for Obama if they were primaries. Which is why the relevant criterion is a delegate count. since there is no proper manner to assign votes to a Caucus State.

In todays SUSA poll of Ohio, Obama's numbers are up 11 points and he has a 7 point margin over McCain.

It is funny to see how deeply Mr. Simberg wants his fantasies to be perceived as reality, instead of actually seeking facts. He could do better.

Anonymous wrote:

For the morons who can't take the trouble to find out, here's the link:

Leland wrote:

Tell you what, link to this poll data in November and tell us how useful it is.

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About this Entry

This page contains a single entry by Rand Simberg published on May 22, 2008 6:37 PM.

That Trick Never Works was the previous entry in this blog.

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