Many continue to disbelieve (with no obvious basis) that there really is a market for people who want to go into space; that it is "just a fad," and that after a while, folks will get bored and the demand will disappear. I of course think that's nonsense, and that word of mouth of the experience will only increase interest in it as more and more people hear about it, and want to try it themselves. Any astronaut will tell you that it was a, if not the peak experience of their lives.
Well, Space Adventures has announced today that Charles Simonyi, who flew with them previously, is going to spend millions do it again.
Man, that first time must have really sucked.
[Update mid morning]
Clark Lindsey has the press release.
Yeah, heck of a market there Rand.
Having to rely on the SAME customer, twice.
How many people did he have to cut in front of, with that line stretching out the door...? LOL.
Shubber, if there's not a line out the door, it's because the price is so high, not because there's no demand.
Rand, nobody, anywhere has said there isn't a demand. I certainly haven't, except in your most febrile imaginings. What people have consistently said is the demand may not be sufficient to drive the investment needed to develop and open space up.
There are markets for lots of niche hobbies, from climbing Everest to visiting Antartica but they've all replied on an existing and fairly robust infrastructure that was developed for other purposes.
Rand, nobody, anywhere has said there isn't a demand. I certainly haven't, except in your most febrile imaginings.
Yes, many people, in many places, have said that. I didn't say you had, so I have no idea what you're whining about now.
Ok, Rand, have it your way.
I agree with you then that anybody who said there wasn't a demand is wrong.
What I have said, over and over, is there probably isn't a mass demand - something you have, without any foundation, claimed over and over again.
Wish there was. There isn't.
There should be a higher demand even at $20M, which, for the super rich, even in the current market isn't actually all that much money.
Even assuming the Futron report is out by several years, they were assuming growth in new customers even at those price points.
Ok, Rand, have it your way.
My way, as in "corresponding to reality"?
What I have said, over and over, is there probably isn't a mass demand - something you have, without any foundation, claimed over and over again.
That's nice, I guess, but it has nothing to do with this post, which is about people who claim that there is no demand, or that it will be a "fad."
That's nice, I guess, but it has nothing to do with this post, which is about people who claim that there is no demand, or that it will be a "fad."
And you conveniently snipped the next paragraph which brought in the full context.
The point counter raised was very strong. Why isn't there more demand at $20M - while it's a lot of money there should be more than enough people for more than 5 flights before we get the same people going again. Even the Futron Report, oft quoted by, among others, you, had more than that at the current prices.
If that's wrong at $20M, why do you think it's right at $200K or $10K?
At what price point does the demand go up then?
Daveon, you might want to look into the futures market to supply you with enough raw material for all those strawmen you're building.
Or Daveon might want to parse the nature of the first comment again ^_^
Even at this stage, repeat buisness is a good thing. Consider it a small step to the "Billions and Billions Served" signs...
"There should be a higher demand even at $20M, which, for the super rich, even in the current market isn't actually all that much money."
First of all, you are leaving out the 6 months of training, including the need to learn Russian.
Secondly, "there should be" zero demand at this price according to the conventional wisdom up till Tito announced his flight. (John Denver's interest in going to Mir was considered an odd one-off, not a sign of a market.)
Thirdly, there are only about 800 billionaires in the world. If you extend the wealth range to the low hundreds of millionaires, we are still talking about a few thousand people. (Garriott is very unusual in that very few people would ever spend more than half their net worth on a one time activity.) I consider SA's success in convincing something like 1% of that potential customer base to spend $20M-30M plus 6 months training as an extremely encouraging sign.
Fourthly, it doesn't have to be a "mass" market. Niche markets are wonderful. I only care if the market is big enough to sustain a non-zero number of companies that are developing human spaceflight capabilities. I see no reason the 1% rule shouldn't continue to apply as ticket prices dropped and training became a few weeks. That would mean at least hundreds of customers as prices reach the low single digit millions. That's plenty. Bigelow would be ecstatic if he had 100 people per year paying Elon or whomever to go to his habitats.
- Clark