There are actually a lot of reasons. The only thing that could save him will be ACORN vote fraud in Philly. And that will depend on who Ed Rendell really wants to win. He is a Hillary! supporter, after all...
In every election since 1960 (Kennedy vs Nixon), the Democrats' candidate has become less popular as time passed. In every single election, they are most popular before labor day, and finish at their least appealing... the average is that they lose 6 point by the election day.
That's why I'm not very concerned about Obama - he fits the mold perfectly, and will flame out long before the election (indeed, he probably has). I just hope McCain goes in and cleans house - I can't say I totally expect it, but I hope it happens...
Carl Pham wrote:
I wouldn't hold your breath. I grew up in Pennsylvania, and it is dyed Democrat blue very, very deep, albeit a Truman/union steelworker/Catholic blue. I think they'll see Obama as a prating university fool, but it's still going to be very hard to pull the R lever, it practically goes against the DNA.
Then there's all the ex NYC yuppies moving into the Northeast.
amrobinson wrote:
Federal law now provides for anyone who wants to vote, but lacks the necessary identification, or is not listed correctly on the voter rolls, must be given a provisional ballot, and its validity would be established later.
John Fund says if the number of provisional ballots exceeds the margin of error, likely in this closely contested election, the Democrats will sue to force their acceptance.
Is it possible that, if the Democrats send their minions out to create thousands and thousands of obviously bogus provisional ballots in each battleground state, and then sue extensively over them, can it end up in the House of Representatives? Where, no doubt, the Democratic majority will rule every one of them in order, thus sending every close state into the Obama category?
John wrote:
I grew up and live in PA. PA is a close election the last few times. The middle of the state always goes GOP. The eastern Philly area democrat and the western part democrat. However, much of the western part is Pittsburgh and rural areas. These rural areas in western PA are the people who are offended by the guns and bibles remark. Also, these western PA counties which I live in are very Democrat. Kerry was the first democrat to lose Greene county since FDR which was a huge surprise and it was because of gun rights. These western PA counties are very pro-union mainly united mine workers and steel workers. These western PA counties are also very pro-NRA.
These western PA counties also have a reputation for KKK especially Greene county. I think Obama could lose PA unless of massive voter fraud in Philly.
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About this Entry
This page contains a single entry by Rand Simberg published on September 17, 2008 7:57 AM.
Something interesting that I had suspected, but had no data to back up until now:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/110074/Shifts-Last-Two-Months-Election-Uncommon.aspx
In every election since 1960 (Kennedy vs Nixon), the Democrats' candidate has become less popular as time passed. In every single election, they are most popular before labor day, and finish at their least appealing... the average is that they lose 6 point by the election day.
That's why I'm not very concerned about Obama - he fits the mold perfectly, and will flame out long before the election (indeed, he probably has). I just hope McCain goes in and cleans house - I can't say I totally expect it, but I hope it happens...
I wouldn't hold your breath. I grew up in Pennsylvania, and it is dyed Democrat blue very, very deep, albeit a Truman/union steelworker/Catholic blue. I think they'll see Obama as a prating university fool, but it's still going to be very hard to pull the R lever, it practically goes against the DNA.
Then there's all the ex NYC yuppies moving into the Northeast.
Federal law now provides for anyone who wants to vote, but lacks the necessary identification, or is not listed correctly on the voter rolls, must be given a provisional ballot, and its validity would be established later.
John Fund says if the number of provisional ballots exceeds the margin of error, likely in this closely contested election, the Democrats will sue to force their acceptance.
Is it possible that, if the Democrats send their minions out to create thousands and thousands of obviously bogus provisional ballots in each battleground state, and then sue extensively over them, can it end up in the House of Representatives? Where, no doubt, the Democratic majority will rule every one of them in order, thus sending every close state into the Obama category?
I grew up and live in PA. PA is a close election the last few times. The middle of the state always goes GOP. The eastern Philly area democrat and the western part democrat. However, much of the western part is Pittsburgh and rural areas. These rural areas in western PA are the people who are offended by the guns and bibles remark. Also, these western PA counties which I live in are very Democrat. Kerry was the first democrat to lose Greene county since FDR which was a huge surprise and it was because of gun rights. These western PA counties are very pro-union mainly united mine workers and steel workers. These western PA counties are also very pro-NRA.
These western PA counties also have a reputation for KKK especially Greene county. I think Obama could lose PA unless of massive voter fraud in Philly.