Not according to Richard Benedetto. He says that Democrats who think that they can knock him off easily, or that the financial scandals are taking a serious toll, are living in Bizarro world.

In case you might have missed it, William Safire, appearing on CBS' Face Bob Schieffer had a rather entertaining prediction for the fall elections: control of the House and Senate will swap, with Dick Gephardt becoming Speaker, and presumably Trent Lott returning as Senate Majority Leader.

What was his basis for it (other than just wanting to get a rise out Schieffer)?

I want some of what Saffire is smoking.

Granted, he posted that prediction before the market rally, (which removed the condition that made Dick Gephardt think he could get 30 new seats) but even so, with the small number of open seats, and the GOP edge from redistricting, the Dems would have to win every single "in play" house seat, and that just wasn't gonna happen. I was reassured that someone thought the GOP was gonna take the Senate (which has until now looked way too close to call, and still does to me) until I realized it came from the same guy who said the Dems would take the senate.

I actually wish it were true, because it means that the logjam of stuff the house already passed would get through in the Senate, it would stop the blockade of judges, and Speaker Gephardt would me much easier to outmanuever than Senate Majority Leader Daschle has been. I don't think the House is in play, but I'd find trading the House for the Senate a better situation than keeping the House and not getting the Senate... but getting both is more likely than either right now.

The strongest advantage Bush has going for him is the 'good man' perception of the average voter. People feel like they can trust him, in contrast to BJB. This could play out to be a big advantage in the mid-term elections as people give his endorsement of the local politico more weight than normal. Who are the Dems going to trot out to counter this? The only hope the Dems have, in my opinion, is if the Bushies do nothing political and try to continue to get along with the Dems.

My two cents-

1)$$$$$ The Dems don't have it. After the 2000 election their funds started tanking because no one likes losers. After 9-11 they really began tanking. Furthermore it seems the Jewish vote is shifting their money along with them.

2) The economy is fine the more the market recovers the less of an issue it will be. Liberman is already warning is buds to back off that issue. Hmmm... Rubin?

3) What this did do was give some meat to their zombie followers who believe Al was robbed in 2000 and all business is evil, , etc...

I really don't want to see Lott in charge of the Senate. He seems a nice gentleman and all but weak in leadership.

Actually, I think it was Safire's imagination. He did say something in favor of divided government, as I recall, and before he made his prediction he teased Doris Kearns Goodwin about the fact that since she's a historian rather than a pundit, she has it easier on shows like this.

Re: Bush's midterm goodwill, I agree that he hasn't got much competition on the Democrat side. What are the issues Democrats are going to use to run against him? Domestically, he's been triangulating them (or capitulating, if you prefer), so as to keep the war most prominent, and denying them headlines.

ACTually, I wouldn't be surprised if Lott gets replaced next time around as Majority leader, as an earlier poster pointed out, but in a different context "people don't like losers" and Lott took a lot of flack for losing the Senate, and a lot of people are tired of seeing him outmaneuvered by Daschle. Then again... I don't know who's in position to replace him.

In 2000, a pompous Gore overlooked Presidential victory by opting for Lieberman. IF he had gone to an independent (say Ventura), a signal would have gone out that the "old party ways" are over. That politicians from ALL sides who had proven leadership skills, could sit in a UNITY GOVERNMENT ... then all the old ideas would have swept away.

Gore opted for "same ole, same ole." And, he will NEVER be back. Buh Bye, HAYES/TILDEN redux.

Meanwhile, as all the AMerican flags have come off the cars (where unity after 9/11 shone across this country in a patriotic act that really did give Bush momentum) ... the flags are down. And, Bush, ever busy as a beaver selling Islam and "piece" ... and a Palestinian state slightly less ahead of Clinton's ... has done something DEAD POLITICIANS DO. He thinks voters don't count.

So? So if the dems really want to win gone will be the Carter's. The LBJ's that lost traction during a March on Washington in 1967; and, gone, too the Mondale's and McGovern's. And Dukakis' ... To be replaced by a UNITY TICKET. Not the squabbling you think you'll see ... But a concerted effort ... perhaps starting in NY ... at the site of the UN ... and the "PROMISE." Gentlemen Diplomats, start packing your bags. Selling your condos. The UN doesn't live here anymore.

Bush's biggest mistake is his refusal to go beyond his Read My Lip speech on terrorism. If he can't see terrorism in California, where an El Al reception area hosts an Egyptian killer ... IF he can't see terrorism in Israel's world. If he can't figure out that finger-waving SHaron last April with his anger at Israel's Defensive Shield. If he can't see the harm that befell his father, listening to Colin Powell, or letting the scuds rain down on Israel from Iraq, go unanswered ...

If Bush can't see his own wobble ... If he is counting on the hatred ordinary republicans spew out at the Clinton's ... Then he's no better than Gore.

And, Gore won't be there in 2004.

Sure, Bush can send troops now to Iraq. As soon as the summer's over. But 9-11 is rolling around ... What's his victory plan? What happens on 10/11/02 when the Christian Coalition rolls its busloads to the Ellipse in Washington for the purpose of telling Bush that the Christian Right thinks his ideas about a "Palestinian State" are WRONG!

Hang in there, Congress. Votes will be on the line. And, Bush may yet be behind the curve. There are more surprises ahead than what is planned for Homeland Security, and all the other pitfalls Bush has been able to create for himself. To say nothing of a market that can't grow 2,000 points in a month!

Oh, yeah. I forgot. Bush has high flying approval numbers. (About 60% worth. I guess his dad's 90% approval rating flips and gets better?) Sure. Such a nice guy. Just look at the Saudis arriving in Crawford ... Look at how Bush just skirts his failures. And, Americans didn't notice. Shur thing. Yup. And, that will be the day. If you asked me. You don't have to agree. Ya just have to wait for the voting to start. IMHO.