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Just in case anyone was losing sleep over it, it turns out that the asteroid that had our number on it in 2019 is going to miss, at least that time around. This isn't surprising--the initial estimates were based on very crude data. Now that more observations have been made, they can get much greater precision in their predictions of the object's trajectory.
And for those who are interested in how the odds are calculated in general, here's a little piece in Salon on that subject (thanks to reader Lloyd Albano).
Posted by Rand Simberg at July 29, 2002 12:21 PM
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Comments
Guess this means Social Security has to be solvent beyond 2020 after all.
Sorry, bad joke.
Just for the sake of argument, had the calculations confirmed that that sucker would have smacked us in 16 years, what would, in your opinion, be the better strategy: work on ways to destroy it, or get in ships and look for a new home?
Posted by MarkD at July 29, 2002 01:07 PM
Interestingly, the best ways to save ourselves from it also make it a lot easier to find new homes. Many of the same technologies that allow us to divert asteroids on a collision path can also allow us to retrieve and mine them.
But the emphasis should be on diverting it--there are far fewer uncertainties than in attempting to build off-world settlements on short notice.
Posted by Rand Simberg at July 29, 2002 02:02 PM
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