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« John Glenn, Statesman | Main | Frances Update »

Did Someone Say Bounce?

Like a superball. The poll was taken after the president's convention speech:

-- In New York City, the number of adults who say Bush will win jumped from 39% on 7/22 (the week before the DNC) to 58% today: 19 points up for Bush, 17 points down for Kerry.

-- In Los Angeles, the number who say Bush will win jumped from 38% on 7/22 to 59% today: 21 points up for Bush, 18 points down for Kerry.

-- In Pittsburgh, Bush went from 44% to 64%: 20 points up for Bush, 19 points down for Kerry.

So much for the conventional wisdom that the electorate was "locked in place" and there were no undecideds, and no room for a bounce (which was the MSM excuse for the fact that Kerry didn't get one).

There's no way for the numbers to change this much except for former Kerry voters moving to Bush. I see no sign that Kerry has the ability or strategy to get them back. They say that the voters don't start paying attention until after Labor Day. It looks like they may have started a few days early this year, and they may have finally started to take a good look at the junior Senator from Massachusetts.

What's most interesting to me about this poll is the huge number of people who have written Kerry off. If that sentiment holds on election day, and people don't believe that the election will be close, the wreckage will be even worse, because the Mooreheads will feel free to vote for third-party candidates like Nader or whoever Peace and Freedom puts out there. We may, in fact, have already reached that tipping point, once these polls become widely reported.

Posted by Rand Simberg at September 04, 2004 03:23 PM

Comments

Rand, what's with everyone changing the acronyms? Just when I got used to LLL, now there's MSM. What's that stand for?

Posted by Rick C at September 4, 2004 03:55 PM

MSM stands for "mainstream media" -- and that is a misnomer because they have as much to do with the mainstream of America as thong underwear has to do with moon rocks.

Posted by McGehee at September 4, 2004 05:08 PM

Well, those polls are perceptions of victory, not people changing their minds over who they would to vote for. A far more volatile number than voting intentions - I would say that %90 might have said that Dole was going to lose in '96.

You might want to dig out the similar numbers for Kerry after the DNC. Now Bush does seem to have gotten a bouce, but that is among "likely" voters. I believe Kerry is doing better if you include all registered voters. A lot will depend on turn out in November.

By the way, where did these numbers come from? They don't appear to be in the article you linked to.

Posted by Duncan Young at September 4, 2004 05:45 PM

Time

Bush 52 Kerry 41 Nader 3

Newsweek

Bush 52 Kerry 41 Nader 3

Posted by Mike Puckett at September 4, 2004 06:14 PM

Duncan,

Try and contain your excitement.

Posted by Jim Rohrich at September 4, 2004 09:00 PM

McGehee, thanks.

Posted by Rick C at September 5, 2004 06:43 AM

Superball bounce? Yup.

I guess hate sells.

Just remember, Jesus loves you and shares your hatred of homosexuals and Hillary Clinton

;-)

Posted by Bill White at September 5, 2004 07:19 AM

Bill - is that anything like the leftist moonbats' sign outside the RNC: "God hates George Bush"?

No posts from Rand lately, so I'm guessing he's off "air" because the power's gone. Hope you're OK, Rand.

Posted by Barbara Skolaut at September 5, 2004 08:41 AM

"I guess hate sells."

I guess you must be referring to Michael Moore and his mooreons as well as the moveon bottomfeeders because they are the ones selling hate.

I sure didn't see any hate last week from any of the speakers at the RNC, just a little taking to task.

Posted by Mike Puckett at September 5, 2004 09:21 AM

Zell Miller? He belongs to the GOP, now. The new GOP poster boy. ;-)

Taking to task? You guys control the White House, both branches of Congress and the Supreme Court.

What is there for you guys to be angry about?

Posted by Bill White at September 5, 2004 11:35 AM

Actually, now I have a sincere question for Rand, and his disciples. What is your opinion of Jonathon Rauch?

http://reason.com/rauch/rauch.shtml

Posted by Bill White at September 5, 2004 11:42 AM

Bill - I could be wrong, of course, but I doubt that Rand thinks he has any "diciples."

Anyway, considering the fact that he's in the middle of a hurricane and probably without power (but hopefully otherwise OK), the timing of your question seems inappropriate.

You wouldn't be related to John, would you?

Posted by Barbara Skolaut at September 5, 2004 11:51 AM

I didn't see any hate from Zell. Tons of righteous indignation at the mockery the left has made of the once great Democratic party yes but hate no.

Posted by Mike Puckett at September 5, 2004 11:53 AM

You're correct, Mike. The trouble is the nuanced (self-centered, bigoted) "news" people have never seen a "barnburner" speech and have no clue what it is. Pity.

But then, the MSM is more to be censured than pitied.

Posted by Barbara Skolaut at September 5, 2004 12:32 PM

I found it interesting that bastion of objective reporting, the NY Times online, thought Dems urging Kerry to increase his intensity was a better headline that the first big move in the polls for months. Here is the first time a candidate has a lead outside the margin of error and the Times doesn't think it's worth a headline. The AP had one that said "Polls Suggest a Double-Digit Lead". These "nuanced" headlines and stories are ridiculous.

Posted by Bill Maron at September 5, 2004 01:36 PM

Soon after the convention ended, I heard some Democrat pundits complaining about what they said was the intensely negative Republican convention, comparing it to the much more upbeat Democratic convention, without all that terribly negative speech.

A couple hours after that, I heard some Republican pundits praising the Republican convention, with what they said was its upbeat, optimistic look to the future, and compared it to the depressing attitude at the Democratic convention, with all that terribly negative speech.

I don't think anybody planned it, but they were almost mirror images of each other. Eye of the beholder, anyone?

All I can say is that there were definitely things I didn't agree with in the Republican convention, but I didn't hear any hate speech.

Posted by VR at September 5, 2004 03:56 PM

I would not be so assure of a Bush victory. Two months is a long time in a campaign and alot can still happen.

Although I have much to disagree with Bush on, I still prefer him to Kerry.

Posted by Kurt at September 5, 2004 05:00 PM

Gallup:

Bush 52

Kerry 45

Prez approval rating 55

Posted by Mike Puckett at September 6, 2004 02:42 PM

Quoted Gallup numbers are for what Gallup thinks are likely voters. Numbers for registered voters are 49-48 to Bush.

GOTV will be key. Dems have always been good at this - but the GOP is rapidly catching up.

This might make 2000 look like a landslide.

Posted by Duncan Young at September 7, 2004 01:43 AM

There is a nuance with reference to hate that is often ignored. You can hate a person or you can hate the bad that a person does. Righteous indignation is an example of the latter. Zell was right when he said a person is his record (and the man does know what a metaphore is.)

It's looking better for my June 17th prediction. Unless the media can fabricate something despicably evil about Bush right before the election... even then I don't see how someone as unelectable as Kerry could become president.

Posted by ken anthony at September 7, 2004 06:13 AM

Yup. I concede.

Kerry is unelectable. Time to prop up your feet and pop some Millers, 'kay?

Posted by Bill White at September 7, 2004 06:46 AM

Gallup puts their numbers in perspective. Among registered voters, this is the smallest convention bounce any incumbent has received in the last forty years. It ranks with the bounce the Democrats got out of their highly sucessful 1968 convention.

(Of course, Kerry's is the only negative bounce)

Posted by Duncan Young at September 7, 2004 06:54 AM

The Newsweek poll with its double digit lead was never believable to begin with. That kind of jump never occurs and was even more unlikely in current circumstances. It turns out that there was some inherent bias in the polling sample and that has to be taken out. Once it is, the Bush increase is much smaller.

Posted by at September 7, 2004 01:30 PM

There's a lot that can go wrong for Bush between now and November-the economy, Iraq, Kitty Wells. His ace in the hole is capturing Osama bin Laden, if he hasn't nabbed him already.

Check out my post on the Bush Campaign I wrote today on my blog.

Tom

Posted by Tom at September 7, 2004 05:51 PM

Duncan Young's comment reminds me:

2002 was, iirc, the first time in US electoral history that the party in the White House saw gains in both the House and the Senate.

The person in the WH, of course, was the inarticulate, dumb-as-a-chimp George Dubya Bush. The Dems ran on that, claiming that they would send a message to the WH about the 2000 elections, the recession (and it was a recession, AFAIK, at the time), the catastrophe of 9-11. In essence, it was an opportunity to be as anti-Bush as one could be, riding an event (mid-term elections) that normally should have hurt the incumbent's party.

The results, of course, were ahistorical.

One wonders, then, why the Dems seem to believe that roughly the same strategy and message, with a weak standard-bearer (notice how few folks argue that Kerry is a strong candidate on his own terms---at best, it is that he is a stronger candidate than Dubya), will produce better results two years later?

Posted by Dean at September 8, 2004 12:58 PM

Interesting result from the Gallup Polls internals.
Kerry got a 3 point bounce out of the RNC were it matters - the battleground states.

Before the RNC:
Kerry: 47
Bush: 46

After the RNC:
Kerry: 50
Bush: 45

Again, these are registered voters. Red meat apparently lands only in the red states.

The admittedly partisan Ray Teixerira discusses it further here.

Posted by Duncan Young at September 9, 2004 06:46 AM

Interesting result from the Gallup Polls internals.
Kerry got a 3 point bounce out of the RNC were it matters - the battleground states.

Before the RNC:
Kerry: 47
Bush: 46

After the RNC:
Kerry: 50
Bush: 45

Again, these are registered voters. Red meat apparently lands only in the red states.

The admittedly partisan Ray Teixerira discusses it further here.

Posted by Duncan Young at September 9, 2004 06:47 AM

Slow modem in rural New Zealand. Sorry about the double post.

Posted by Duncan Young at September 9, 2004 06:55 AM


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