Of all the dumb reasons to vote for Barack Obama (and they are legion, even if there are a few smart ones interspersed), one of the dumbest is simply because the media is telling you he's inevitable. The bandwagon effect is a classical logical fallacy, that many fall for nonetheless (because most people are untrained in logic).
Don't let them herd you like a sheep into voting for someone just because you want to vote for the winner. If you're going to drink the redistributionist koolaid, at least do it because you actually believe it.
It's a secret ballot. Vote for your favorite candidate and say you voted for the winner after there is one.
Exactly, Sam.
Unfortunately, I doubt many readers of this blog are terribly susceptible to the bandwagon effect, at least as far as our presidential voting goes.
(This, of course, is because the average Transterrestrial Musings reader is more logical and independent minded than everyone else. Also, we're cheerier and more hygienic.)
Sam, too late. Rand's on record as a Vichy collaborator.
A crowd of independent thinkers can be pretty smart. A mob in group think is among the stupidest beasts known to man.
PeterH nicely summed up why I don't believe in the prediction markets.
I never understood this idea of wanting to vote for someone you don't like, just because they're likely to be a winner. I guess that if the party in power knows they can't possibly get your vote, they'll ignore your concerns, but I doubt that voting for them will help.