The Ares folks are reportedly defying the White House.
The problem, of course, is that they still have their budget, and they have allies in Congress. I feel sorry for them, because they’ve put a lot of effort in this, and don’t want to see it go for naught, and they’re caught in the middle of a war between the White House and the Hill, or at least a few key people on the Hill, and it’s a non-partisan battle. Unfortunately, if Congress doesn’t get a budget out this year (which seems likely to me) and does a continuing resolution, this could go on for many more months, wasting a lot more money and time, and delaying the start of anything useful in a new direction. And a Republican Congress next year could shut down or redirect the whole mess. Newt and Bob Walker and Dana are going to have to stay on the hustings to try to get their fellow elephants not to screw things up.
[Update a few minutes later]
This does nothing except increase the pressure on SpaceX for a successful Falcon 9 launch, of course. The political stakes are unfairly high for them.
I’ve avoided most of your other discussions on this topic, because this is what I’ve been seeing playing out. I agree with your views about what Obama proposed. However, I’m not sure if this infighting wasn’t what he was intending to do.
Doesn’t Obama still have the authority to retire the shuttle, scrap the MLPs and the launch towers and to fire a large section of the Shuttle workforce?
Doesn’t Obama still have the authority to retire the shuttle, scrap the MLPs and the launch towers and to fire a large section of the Shuttle workforce?
Not until after the last flight, which is likely to occur next year now. Adding budget pressure, of course, since presumably the submitted budget assumed last flight in FY2010 (ending in September).
I believe there is a clause in the 2010 budget that provides for funding should the already planned flights slip into the first half of 2011.
By defying the White House Mr Hanley can look forward to polishing his resume next year, but that was probably the case anyway.
With all due respect, President Obama has merely proposed a budget and new direction for NASA. Until Congress which in theory represents the will of the people, approves it, and funds it, its still a proposal. That is the difference between a dictatorship and a republic. And they have every right, until the decision is actually made, to see if the are able to provide an alternative that both the President and Congress may agree on.
So mutiny is not a term that would apply, at least not in the U.S. Now in other, none democratic nations…
But yes, Rand, it does increase the pressure on SpaceX, as I have been stating from the day President’s Obama policy was first proposed.
Unfortunately SpaceX is now the poster boy for the new policy, its even made “official’ since President Obama viewed their rocket on his visit to KSC, and so they no longer have a margin for error on their flights. None.
If SpaceX launch fails you could bet Elon will be invited to a Congressional hearing (aka witch hunt) as the guest of honor. And may the Press have mercy on him because Senator Shelby and friends won’t. I hope New Space groups have a media blitz planned to support him because he will need it.
Yes, its a sad situation, which is one reason I don’t think this policy will advance New Space. That is why I believe it would have been better to continue the old policy so New Space could continue to develop under the radar. But that option is gone.
The mammal have decided to snatch the Raptors’ bone and they want it back. The mammal better run fast and not make any mistakes or it will be a quick snack 🙂
BTW as preparation for what is to come you might want to watch the Movie “Tucker” again if you haven’t seen it. Or read the biography of William Boeing.
SpaceX only has political pressure to the extent that they are seeking government money rather than being commercial. They have actively sought and won big government contracts and are actively seeking even larger ones. They have intentionally entered into the ongoing series of political battles that is the NASA budget. If they can’t stand the heat, they can get out of the kitchen. They can do real commerce instead.
I hope SpaceX is successful. I also hope there is more than 1 mammal out there.
From our perspective it may increase the pressure on SpaceX, but honestly, how much more can Elon feel? I can’t imagine it, frankly.
Having the static fire go as planned, and then having to wait while the AF straps explosives onto the side of his beautiful rocket? Screw that!
I was rooting for GOP delaying tactics with health care to succeed and now I’m rooting for GOP delaying tactics with NASA to fail.
I do not get why there are all these expectations for SpaceX to have a perfect first Falcon 9 flight. Other highly reliable launch services, by people with vast experience, have failed in their first flight including Ariane 5 (commercial satellite launch market leader).
I expect the first F9 stage to work properly, but there may be issues in the second stage or stage separation since it seems to be less tested. They did bother to do a second stage test this time, to reduce risk, while with Falcon 1 AFAIK they only did testing of the second stage engine. It would be nice if the first flight went fine, but I am not expecting it to work right first time.
Also SpaceX is not the only COTS provider since Orbital is working on Taurus II. Work on Taurus II is necessarily further behind since the project started much later. However alternatives are being worked on. This even if you ignored ULA or the other NewSpace companies. Which I doubt NASA will do. ULA will probably get most of the money in the deals, hard to expect the government to do otherwise.
To me Obama is merely expanding on the previous COTS policy by doing the obvious thing: Ares 1 was a useless rocket providing a useless capability for all the wrong reasons using the wrong technologies. It had to be knifed eventually.
As for Ares 5 it does not make financial sense, just like Saturn 5 did not make financial sense either. The natural historical tendency of the market has been to evolve to larger launch vehicles. However Ares 5 is too big at this point in time. Not enough applications. I do think there is a point in developing larger engines for existing applications, which might be used for later larger rockets however. This is supposedly in the works so I am a happy camper in case it happens (hah).
PS: Anyone looked at the supposed USAF plans for an EELV successor? Reusable flyback first stages?
In the private sector, one would be canned outright for doing something like Jeff did. Not that I agree with the “canning” part of it. I’d do the same thing if I thought my management was wrong. I know Jeff, and hope it comes out okay for him. He’s actually a very decent guy.
MfK,
Actually that was one of the reasons for the creation of the civil service. In theory civil servants are working for the public and they are suppose to in theory put the interests of the public first, not those of Administrator Bolden or the President.
By contrast if you work in the private sector your boss is your boss. period.
If SpaceX launch fails you could bet Elon will be invited to a Congressional hearing
Not a big deal. Elon has seen failure. He’s going forward regardless.
I enjoy listening to Elon. I think more people should. He’s not the space messiah, but he does seem to have a healthy view of how things work.
“If SpaceX launch fails you could bet Elon will be invited to a Congressional hearing (aka witch hunt) as the guest of honor.”
Wow, I wonder if it would go down a little like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siQgD9qOhRs
haha.
In this case, Hanley is basically defying the CEO (Obama) in order to carry out the orders of the Board of Directors (Congress). That is not a precise analogy since a corporate Board can hire and fire the CEO, but it will do.
Congress has appropriated funds for CxP through the end of FY10 and has passed authorization legislation forbidding NASA from cancelling CxP until the end of FY10. What Hanley is doing is not “mutiny” in any accepted sense of the term, though it does go against the direction the Administration wants to go in FY11.
So yes, Hanley’s job is probably toast. But if Bolden countermands him before the stroke of midnight on September 30, he is basically asking for a stint in the Federal pen. And he is quite aware of this.
Trent, Ken,
It looks good in the movies, but in the real world Tony Stark would be escorted from the hearing chamber for contempt of Congress…
Nemo, I think that’s the point.. if there’s a continuing resolution on the NASA budget Bolden has the noose hanging over his head after September 30.
Tom, it would be the first time someone has told a congressional committee to go sit on it and walked away unscathed. That cat is mostly toothless.
yes, wouldn’t*.
This one really takes it, Rand. Is there no one in Ares work who realizes the purpose of space should go beyond a vastly expensive national circus show?
No, I guess not – or at least they’re afraid to speak out.
Charles, what do you think “the purpose of space” should be? Because it seems the vast majority have no idea.
A more historical (or at least “based on” real events as recounted in “Aviator”) account of a witness challenging a committee chair, is the case of Howard Hughes before Senate Brewster’s committee, regarding the WWII contract for the “Spruce Goose”.
Googaw,
Yes, and Howard Hughes was never afraid to pay hardball. If you recall he hired a PI to get some background information on Senator Brewster and Pan Am.
Trent,
Not as toothless as you think. Which is why most people who go before a committee have good legal advice, and know enough to follow it. Or like Howard Hughes know how to play hardball. But hopefully Falcon will be a roaring success and the issue won’t come up.
Charles,
I expect that is how many involved in Ares work view New Space with all its hype and PR stunts like the X-Prize. And is one reason they object to it trying to take over “serious” space exploration, at least from their perspective.
NASA could do with some more X-Prize quality PR. It’s a shame they can’t keep the Centennial Challenges going year round.. and I can only imagine how horrid the PR is going to be for CCDev.
Contempt of Congress is the act of obstructing the work of the United States Congress or one of its committees.
If he shows up and answers there questions, they have no grounds. Why wouldn’t he? I think Elon is more than capable of answering for his company.
This entire episode shows that the human spaceflight program is nothing but a jobs stunt.
Program? Ok. But don’t draw with too broad a brush. Human spaceflight is essential (long term.)
This entire episode shows that the human spaceflight program is nothing but a jobs stunt
Like are many other federal “program”-y things. Your point ? Note that human spaceflight does not equal US federal human spaceflight program.
Preserving Ares will make it all the easier to zero out the NASA HSF budget when the fiscal stuff finally does hit the fan.
I expect that is how many involved in Ares work view New Space with all its hype and PR stunts like the X-Prize.
Gosh, Tom. A couple weeks ago, you claimed to be a supporter of reusable vehicles and suborbital spaceflight. Now, I suppose, you’re going to claim you never said that, either?
And two weeks from now, you’ll claim you never said this, too?
I think it was Will Rogers who said, “If you tell the truth, you don’t have to remember anything.” Too bad Will Rogers isn’t in your history book.
And is one reason they object to it trying to take over “serious” space exploration, at least from their perspective.
Yes, Tom, spending billions of dollars to put four men on the Moon is “serious” exploration.
Sending thousands of people into space affordably, developing systems that enable NASA to go beyond the Moon for the first time in history, exploring the asteroids and developing the capability to stop a potential planet-killer — that’s not “serious” exploration because Tom Matula doesn’t like it?
No one should ever try anything new, because you’re afraid to try anything new?
I see now why you’re so angry all the time, Tom. You’re going to hate the future. 🙂
Ken,
I was referring to the Scene from Ironman that Trent posted the link to in which Tony Stark defies Congress, not Elon Musk.
I would be very surprised if Elon Musk did anything to upset his number one customer.
Hi Ed,
[[[Gosh, Tom. A couple weeks ago, you claimed to be a supporter of reusable vehicles and suborbital spaceflight. Now, I suppose, you’re going to claim you never said that, either?]]]
Please read my statement carefully. I indicated that is how the folks working on the Ares I most likely viewed New Space, it was NOT my opinion.
Why do you love twisting people’s words and posts so much? Is it because you just like to troll?
Hi All,
Despite the debate on its future it looks like the Constellation program is still moving forward.
http://www.kfoxtv.com/news/23249153/detail.html
Part Of Next Spacecraft To Be Tested At White Sands Missile Range
[[[In a couple of weeks, a key part of Constellation, the Launch Abort System, will be tested at White Sands Missile Range.
“This is the astronaut rescue system, in case there is a problem out at Kennedy [Space Center] when we fly the Orion spaceship,” said David McAllister, the flight test operations engineer.]]]
Parts of Constellation keep chugging forward. I don’t have much problem with that although I’d like to see a stake through the heart of Ares 1 and 5.
I am rather curious about how the the Orion Launch Abort System (LAS) seems to have disappeared without a trace. Did nobody care about the LAS or the jobs connected to it? Could the design be downsized for use with other capsules/launchers? It seems like SpaceX at least will need a LAS of some sort. Was the Orion LAS having serious development problems? Orbital Sciences is the prime contractor on it (to the best of my understanding). Perhaps they are busy enough with Taurus II and COTS to not care very much.
Tom, you must have missed this in the other thread.
I was referring to the Scene from Ironman
Ok, Stark tells congress it’s his property and he’s not giving it to them. How is that contempt of congress in a legal sense? Would Elon be in contempt if they said, give us your Falcon and Elon said, “No. It belongs to me.”
I don’t blame them. He said that he wants to see manned exploration of space as much as they do. That’s usually how he tells people he’s lying to them.
Ken,
There would be no Congressional hearings on who owns the Iron Man suit. There would be no need. The government would simply take it under the Invention Secrecy Act of 1951.
http://www.fas.org/sgp/othergov/invention/35usc17.html
It would be up to Tony Stark to show he didn’t use any of the technology his firm developed under its government contracts in it. I suspect his probability of success in doing so would be close to zero.
The vague nature of the Flex Path, along with the “look but don’t touch” mandate recently reinforced by Obama and the lack of any political implementation strategy doomed “Flex” from the outset”. The most damning aspect of flex is the total destruction, dissengration of the US manned space program and the horrific job loss and economic impact felt in its wake. Constellation is financially challenged and likely to be years late on all of its objectives. However the aftermath of a Constellation failure is recoverable where as Flex results in absolute destruction of our manned space program. It is unfortunate that commercial development has been saddled with this ill fated amatuerly shortsighted implemented” Flex” strategy. Rand calls resistance mutiny I call it national responsibility. Just because “Flex” has a commercial stamp on it does not indicate my instant approval. It must offer a logical transition and a defined way forward. Ignoring the political reality and lacking any strategy to address it is the crowning failure of the “Flex path”.
Thank you for the link, Thomas. I’ll have to give it some thought (when my eyes aren’t so blurry from all the reading.) 😉
However the aftermath of a Constellation failure is recoverable where as Flex results in absolute destruction of our manned space program.
Constellation was the final destruction of the NASA human space program.
Even governments do not reward abject failure in perpetuity, NASA’s HSP had become a liability. The flexible path is NASA’s last chance to reform and actually start doing useful science and R&D. Without such a last hope, funding would have been turned off and the NASA HSP closed down.