Thoughts from Robin Hanson. Ignoring space settlement, one of the reasons I want us to become spacefaring is to make it more affordable to answer questions like this. With low-cost access both to orbit and beyond, we could do some pretty spectacular exploration of, say, Europa.
7 thoughts on “Future Filters”
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Launch cost is not currently a very large portion of the cost of interplanetary exploration via probes. See the breakdowns at http://futureplanets.blogspot.com/
A guess as to what the evolutionary filters are is to see what has evolved only once. Those are potential bottlenecks. A good example is how mitochondria (which are essentially a symbiotic life form living in each of your body’s cells, with its own DNA) merged with unicelluar life. Or multicellular life, as Robin mentions.
I disagree though that intelligence is not a filter. There are a number of animals in the dog-to-dolphin range, including chimps, parrots and some species of octopus. They’re smart, for animals. But going beyond Lassie has only happened once – and it’s not clear why it happened with us either. Plenty of animals have language, use tools, pass down knowledge socially and manage large social groups.
The other big filter I imagine is simply the energy cost of intersolar travel. If we don’t find a warp drive then conventional physics tells a pretty sorry story about reaching other stars with habitable worlds.
The Fermi Paradox or why advanced civilizations don’t use antique RF comms to humor the new kid on the block.
I read a great post on the loss of science that started with the Drake equation. I can’t find it but Crichton had a similar idea.
We always think of ourselves as modern only to be followed by those that think us quaint.
Wouldn’t it be wonderful to compare notes with an intelligence that followed a different path from ours? How many misconceptions would we discover?
I hear the solution to the Fermi Paradox is they have us quarantined because we’re insane.
Brock, neanderthals developed what we’d call intelligence independently from homo sapiens.. we just killed em off. It’s a shame, if there was some still around we could elect them to Congress and get better space policy.
Brock –
There is very considerable evidence that dolphins and orcas have intelligence comnparable to humans. But they are very alien indeed (for one thing, neither species ever sleeps with both halves of its brain) and also don’t have hands. Living in a water environment without hands makes it a tad difficult to create a technology.
Neither species has vocal cords like ours, either. The jury is still out as to whether they communicate in as complex a manner as we do.
neanderthals developed what we’d call intelligence independently from homo sapiens.. we just killed em off
Yep, it’s that old story of zerg vs. protoss. Sapiens would be the zerg.