Saturn V a Cost Barrier?

Alan Wasser and I think that space property rights are the main thing holding back development of the Moon. Dwayne Day says (last paragraph) that launch cost is the main thing that is holding us back. I don’t think that was true when Saturn Vs were in production.

While high launch costs as a barrier may be temporarily true today, I think that cheap access would be developed to the Moon if it could be claimed legally and the property rights enforced (and may anyway if Elon Musk is to be believed).

The Saturn V Wikipedia entry cites these cost numbers. They add up to $6.42B peaking in 1966-7. The launch cost estimate in Astronautix of $431M is just $6.42B/15. While they list a bunch of R&D contracts that precede the Saturn V line item, they were sunk costs at the time of Saturn V deployment. If someone has a better number please comment. A summary of Schmitt comes up with $3B per launch including $500M in capital costs. Those costs should be written off as sunk (i.e., a company that incurred them would declare bankruptcy and emerge with no debt). The $2.5B remaining is the 2005 price of $431M in 1967 dollars.

Am I missing something? Is pad construction, tooling, design and so on not included in the original $6.4 billion? If non-recurring costs made up a good fraction, then it’s a way overestimate.

Griffin
puts the marginal cost at $100M in 1970 dollars or about $500M today. That would give us $2000/lb to LEO. If we had continued to put $15B/year in current dollars into Lunar development, that would be about 87.5 million pounds to LEO in the last 35 years if 1/3 of the money was spent on launches or over 15 million pounds to the Moon assuming no improvement over 1960s technology (and to be fair no bureaucratic price inflation beyond the consumer price index). That is about 75 international space stations worth of mass.

No, I think the main reason we abandoned the Moon was lack of national will, not price. The price point for colonization can be achieved if the national (or subnational or even rich guy) will comes back. My proposition is that Lunar property rights would be the impetus to set these wheels back in motion. I dare you to prove me wrong.

Seeking Justice

[Note the following was posted at sci.space.policy this morning by sci.space.* moderator George William Herbert]

———————————–)
The People of Ziquikcikty )
(also known as Comet Tempel-1); )
A class, seeking )
certification as such; )
Plaintiffs )
)
v. )
)
Michael A’Hearn, )
Rick Grammier, )
Alphonso Diaz, )
Michael Griffin, )
Karl Rove, )
Andrew Card, )
Richard Cheney, )
George W. Bush, )
Does 1-100, )
and Does 101-600,000, )
1 et Prcpui 50 n 1 abrat 05135, )
Government of Bars and Stripes; )
Defendants ) FILED:
———————————–) Minxktaquicky 43, Year Nipathatep
(July 3, 2005)

STATEMENT OF FACTS

1. The matter before the court regards loss of life and limb, injuries, mental anguish, and property damage suffered on the early morning of Minxktaquicky 43, Year Nipathatep (July 3, 2005) at or around Mong 54 (10:52 PM PST).

2. At or around that time, inhabitants of Ziquikcikty (Comet Tempel-1) were awoken by a large explosion. They awoke to find that a large segment of the surface of Ziquikcity had been destroyed by an unknown agent, leaving a large crater in the surface. Ejected debris caused serious damage to approximately half the surface of Ziquikcity, and minor damage to all remaining areas of the comet.

3. A veritable flood of injured sentients reached medical attention after the explosion, and preliminary estimates are that 105,000 sentients were treated for injuries of some sort. Hospitals report over 2800 cessations of sentient function, with another more than 5,200 sentients undergoing major medial care with significant ongoing risk of cessation of sentient function.

4. Rescue parties are still combing through the debris as of this filing, but 1,952 formerly sentient organisms have been recovered as of this filing, and at least 4,700 remain unaccounted for.

5. Initial estimates of property damage (still preliminary at this time) indicate that in excess of 58,000 residences were destroyed or rendered uninhabitable, in excess of 7,500 places of business were destroyed or rendered uninhabitable, and at least 125,000 other buldings suffered serious damage including at least a partial lsos of pressure. Purely cosmetic damage estimates have not been received to date, but are expected to be severe.

6. Special scientific teams investigating the source of this damage identified debris from a metallic object in the crater at the point of origin of the damage.

7. Subsequent analysis and recovery included large quantities of Element 29.

8. Smaller fragments recovered included a small, square metal plate bearing inscribed text, and many pieces of a micro-representational disc structure.

9. Upon closer inspection, the small, square metal plate was found to have a manufacturers mark (“1 et Prcpui 50 n 1 abrat 05135”) and unit designation (“D33p 1 mpact”).

10. Upon closer inspection, the fragments of a micro-representational disc contained squiggly lines which are associated with pre-infoputational civilization identification rituals.

11. Upon information and belief, based upon Galactic Registrar data and other sources, we believe that defendant
“1 et Prcpui 50 n 1 abrat 05135”
(hereinafter referred to as “1 ET”) is an organization subservient to the defendant “Government of Bars and Stripes”.

12. Upon information and belief, we believe that defendant 1 ET is engaged in interplanetary warfare. Its electronic presences contain information regarding a number of interplanetary weapons systems and military reconnaissance systems which it has employed in past military campaigns against other planetary bodies within the Sol Solar System and nearby interplanetary space.

13. Upon information and belief, we believe that defendants A’Hearn and Grammier were employed by defendant 1 ET as primary assault managers for the D33p system deployment.

14. Upon information and belief, we believe that defendants Diaz and Griffin are direct supervisors within the Government of Bars and Stripes department charged with waging interplanetary warfare.

15. Upon information and belief, we believe that defendants Rove, Card, Cheney, and Bush are senior war-leaders of the Government of Bars and Stripes.

16. Upon information and belief, we believe that defendants Does 1-100 inclusive are members of the strike team which operated the D33p unit which struck Ziquikcikty.

17. Upon information and belief, we believe that defendants Does 101-600,000 are members of the support units which helped assemble and launch the D33p unit which struck Ziquikcikty.

CLAIMS

18. Claim 1:
Plaintiffs claim that Defendants intentionally launched a Weapon of Mass Destruction, D33p unit “1 mpact”, towards Ziquikcikty, causing loss of life, limb, sentience, and property, in contravention of the Galactic Environmental Modification Convention, and Defendants own collaborative agreement contravening the use of environment altering space objects and weapons.

19. Claim 2:
Plaintiffs claim that Defendants launched unprovoked military action without proper notifications or warnings of threat or exclusion zone.

20. Claim 3:
Plaintiffs claim that Defendants neglegently utilized a Weapon of Mass Destruction in proximity to civilian habitation areas without a valid military target within the targeted area.

21. Claim 4:
Plaintiffs claim that Defendants have caused great mental anguish to the peoples of Ziquikcikty, including loss of sleep, disruption of marital congress, premature larval stage spawning, and subversion of extrapotentiary quik.

22. Claim 5:
Plaintiffs claim that Defendants failed to register D33p unit “1 mpact” properly as an exported weapons system under their own legal system.

23. Plaintiffs reserve the right to file ammended compaint as further iformation becomes available to us.

DEMANDS

24. Plaintiffs demand that Defendants be enjoined from further unprovoked military action against spatial bodies.

25. Plaintiffs demand that suitable disaster aid be made available to the beings of Ziquikcikty.

26. Plaintiffs demand monetary damages for loss of sentience, mental anguish, injury, property damage, and the plague of premature larval stage spawning, in an amount to be determined.

27. Plaintiffs demand urgent assistance with approximately one million prematurely spawned larvae who are rapidly denuding all plant life in the affected areas.

28. Failing the above, Plaintiffs demand the right to send the approximately one million prematurely spawned larvae to the vicintity of defendant 1 ET under the doctorine of transferred headache.

29. Plaintiffs demand all movie, television, internet, mind-send and telesmell broadcast rights to all images resulting from the deployment of D33p unit “1 mpact”, under the doctorine of confiscatus felonuis copyrightus.

30. Plaintiffs demand an Intergalactic War Crimes Tribunal for all Defendants for Great Assault and Grand Felony Littering.

SO MOVED

/s/ #@23842*)*dsfe#@dsf#}#@

Illeb Nivlem, JD
Counsel for the Plaintiffs
Minxktaquicky 43, Year Nipathatep (July 3, 2005)

CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE

I, the undersigned, delivered a true and accurate copy of this document to the defendants by: [check one]
[ ] certified mail
[ ] precision planetary delivery probe
[*] class V mindsend

/s/ {}{{{{{}}}{{}}}
Ima Lifpy

[Copyright 2005 by George William Herbert]

On a less light note, I think (but am not entirely sure–(s)he may be trolling) that this nutcase is serious.

Don’t Just Celebrate–Commemorate

That was the title of a Fox News column I wrote three years ago. It’s still appropriate:

It is instructive, and educational (particularly for those who haven’t seen it since high-school civics class, if then) to read aloud Jefferson’s work of genius, the Declaration of Independence. In so doing, we are reminded of the principles on which this country was founded, the offenses committed against our ancestors by the English king, and the reasons that we forged our own nation.

Note also that this is the 142nd anniversary of the Union victory at Gettysburg, and the fall of Vicksburg, Mississippi, which gave the Union control of the Mississippi River and cut the Confederacy in half. It was the beginning of the end for the southern cause, and for better or worse, helped preserve the young nation that had begun (in Lincoln’s words) four score and seven years before.

[Update at 10:40 AM EDT]

Professor Reynolds has some related thoughts.

Don’t Just Celebrate–Commemorate

That was the title of a Fox News column I wrote three years ago. It’s still appropriate:

It is instructive, and educational (particularly for those who haven’t seen it since high-school civics class, if then) to read aloud Jefferson’s work of genius, the Declaration of Independence. In so doing, we are reminded of the principles on which this country was founded, the offenses committed against our ancestors by the English king, and the reasons that we forged our own nation.

Note also that this is the 142nd anniversary of the Union victory at Gettysburg, and the fall of Vicksburg, Mississippi, which gave the Union control of the Mississippi River and cut the Confederacy in half. It was the beginning of the end for the southern cause, and for better or worse, helped preserve the young nation that had begun (in Lincoln’s words) four score and seven years before.

[Update at 10:40 AM EDT]

Professor Reynolds has some related thoughts.

Don’t Just Celebrate–Commemorate

That was the title of a Fox News column I wrote three years ago. It’s still appropriate:

It is instructive, and educational (particularly for those who haven’t seen it since high-school civics class, if then) to read aloud Jefferson’s work of genius, the Declaration of Independence. In so doing, we are reminded of the principles on which this country was founded, the offenses committed against our ancestors by the English king, and the reasons that we forged our own nation.

Note also that this is the 142nd anniversary of the Union victory at Gettysburg, and the fall of Vicksburg, Mississippi, which gave the Union control of the Mississippi River and cut the Confederacy in half. It was the beginning of the end for the southern cause, and for better or worse, helped preserve the young nation that had begun (in Lincoln’s words) four score and seven years before.

[Update at 10:40 AM EDT]

Professor Reynolds has some related thoughts.

You Mean They Aren’t Here To Liberate Us?

Here’s a heart-warming story to celebrate the weekend of Independence Day:

Following al-Qa’eda’s seizure of the main buildings a number of residents fled. Arkan Salim, 56, who left with his wife and four children, said: “We thought they were patriotic. Now we discovered that they are sick and crazy.

“They interfered in everything, even how we raise our children. They turned the city into hell, and we cannot live in it anymore.”

Yeah, totalitarians are like that.

You Mean They Aren’t Here To Liberate Us?

Here’s a heart-warming story to celebrate the weekend of Independence Day:

Following al-Qa’eda’s seizure of the main buildings a number of residents fled. Arkan Salim, 56, who left with his wife and four children, said: “We thought they were patriotic. Now we discovered that they are sick and crazy.

“They interfered in everything, even how we raise our children. They turned the city into hell, and we cannot live in it anymore.”

Yeah, totalitarians are like that.

You Mean They Aren’t Here To Liberate Us?

Here’s a heart-warming story to celebrate the weekend of Independence Day:

Following al-Qa’eda’s seizure of the main buildings a number of residents fled. Arkan Salim, 56, who left with his wife and four children, said: “We thought they were patriotic. Now we discovered that they are sick and crazy.

“They interfered in everything, even how we raise our children. They turned the city into hell, and we cannot live in it anymore.”

Yeah, totalitarians are like that.

Biting Commentary about Infinity…and Beyond!