Trump has tied himself to it, at least for now. As Hammer notes, the danger with a president who is all about deals is that he will pursue them even if they’re lousy ones. And with his straw-man comments about critics of the deal and Israel, Vance has not covered himself in glory here.
22 thoughts on “Vance’s Dubious (And Delusional) Diplomacy”
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Textbook case of “hanging in there” until 2028.
Vance will carry the water, but Rubio will get the nod…
Vance and Theil will knife the old man in the back long before that.
The frame shifting of all bad ideas to Vance is an interesting ploy…
As Secretary of State, shouldn’t Rubio have been the one making that negotiation and taking on that blame? Perhaps Vance deserves more respect that he’s given here for doing an unpopular task?
Anybody here hold on any hope of Ron Desantis getting the nod in 2028? He’d be my pick so far…
Does anyone think that the spat between Messrs. Trump and Netanyahu could be, what is the term-of-art, kayfabe, artfully manufactured controversy in the style of professional wrestling, with which Mr. Trump has had a long history?
Right right and Trump intended for the reflecting pool water to be a lovely American cash green.
I think the fundamental problem Trump has is that the Iran situation can only be resolved by war, due to the mindset of the Iranian regime, yet Trump is insistent that he’s not going to start “forever wars”. So his goals are in conflict with each other. For example, the IRGC has to be destroyed so that a different set of Iranians can take charge (the protesters), but the IRGC are the people he is trying to negotiate with. I also suspect that he’s worried that if the military action continues, we’re going to have a pilot get captured, giving Iran very obvious leverage in negotiations.
Iran is a tar baby that has to be choked out, and Trump very much doesn’t want to grab the tar baby.
That’s the trouble with starting a war. No matter what your plans, it’s the other side that decides when it ends. You’d think Trump-et al would remember that after the last 25 years.
“Iran is a tar baby that has to be choked out”
Too many metaphors on the field, offense!
5-yard penalty!
Still first down!
Well think this quote is apt.
“Different people learn at different rates and in different ways”
For the rest of you Iran Hawks that got played like the fools you are. I’ll finish the quote.
“that even if Trump does what you want, he’ll tend to do it in the most corrupt and incompetent way possible. He’s more likely to discredit or destroy your cause than advance it. The Iran War is no exception.”
I wondered who wrote that ridiculous post and looked at your name, upon whence all became clear.
The question I can’t see an answer to is; why. The blockade was air tight, both the risk and cost were minimal. Those ships and planes will be floating somewhere, regardless. All we needed was time for the Iranians to decide it had to end.
Trump calling Netanyahu names and cursing is just making Trump look bad. Not that Israelis don’t call him worse. I don’t see Israel holding back on Hamas and Hezbollah, especially if it look possible for Iran to get back in the mix.
Story I heard is that in the post-Abraham Accords world, sorry Israel but you are not our sole ally in the region anymore, the Gulf States, who are hating Iran as much as anybody for being bombarded with ballistic and cruise missiles, want to “move on.”
It was also explained that the 300 billion talked about is not direct aid, it is instead foreign investment, the Gulf States want to make that investment and go all Belt-and-Road up Iran’s backside.
Thing is that this is the Middle East that follows a logic all its own, and Mr. Trump taking guidance from our Gulf State allies is not the worst outcome. Maybe not nearly as exposed as Israel, but they share exposure to Iran’s wrathfulness.
Our new allies have militaries that combine massive cost with epic ineffectiveness. What could go wrong.
It’s the Middle East. They have “other” means of persuasion.
Namely, they are (for now or at least if Hormuz stays open) flush with tons of cash with which they can buy influence. For all I know, they are still funding Hamas and Hezbolah under the table and could turn off that tap.
The latest news is that Mr. Trump threatened “I’m going to mess you up” and the Iranians, in a fit of self-righteous pique have walked out of the talks in Switzerland. That is, if Fake News, and it is Fake News, is to be believed.
Is it just me or is the cast of characters out of the movie The Big Lebowski, with of course The Dude, Walter the Vietnam vet who does threaten to mess people up, the German nihilists who actually do mess people up or at least until Walter gets mad enough and bites the ear of one of them?
You guys were so smart about Ukraine Looking the repeat the experience with Iran? Some people are just retarded. Trump has a billion times more info that you.
I haven’t been posting much of anywhere because I’ve been busy with life stuff. I’ll finally be having eye surgery in July to try to save my sight, then seeing the brain surgeon is August. Pursuant to that, I’m also trying to get a couple of new books out.
I do think most people here maybe don’t know as much as they seem to think, and agree Trump et al. know more. The US has seized control of the Strait of Hormuz. Now do the Red Sea (slaughter the Houthis) and wipe out the various pirate infestations. That’s about as far as you can go with tactical air and sea power alone.
The US has seized control of the Strait of Hormuz.
Hasn’t happened yet. Instead the US has negotiated a temporary opening of the Strait. We’ll see if that lasts.
The USN has had functional military control over the strait for months. Everything else is a technicality. I have no idea what Trump is up to (and neither do the rest of you). If I were Trump, I’d take over Kharg, etc. take all the stored oil and sell it at US profit. This is the kind of thing I suggested years ago, in re: Venezuela. “Stand and deliver! Your oil or you vaporize.”
The USN has had functional military control over the strait for months. Everything else is a technicality.
The technicality matters. The US couldn’t run high volume merchant shipping through the strait. That’s long been one of Iran’s goto strategies.
My view is that this is similar to the Tet offensive of 1968 in the Vietnam War. The North Vietnamese lost every battle, but by engaging in this large attack they were able to discredit the US narrative of impending victory.
I think the same happened here. Trump not only expected another easy win, but advertised that. The inability to prevent the Iranian blockade harmed Trump’s credibility with the US public.
I don’t think it will be as harmful to Trump’s power as the Tet offensive was to LBJ, but seriously what did the US gain by this but a renewed Iran?