All posts by Rand Simberg

Is It Dead, Jim?

What happened to Al Qaeda’s Ramadan offensive?

Most people (and all Democrats) fail to appreciate the fact that al Qaeda was directly responsible for the enormous rise in civilian casualties that occurred in 2006 and that continued until recently. As such, they do not really have a way to conceptualize the enormous drop in casualties that occurred last month and that has been maintained through the first week of this month. Once you understand the role played by al Qaeda, then, if al Qaeda really has been quashed (big “if”), I do not see how civilian casualties will ever again climb to their previous levels. The two main sources of civilian casualties in Iraq — deaths from al Qaeda’s suicide bombers and retaliatory execution-style killings by Shiite militias in Baghdad — are both under control. If al Qaeda can no longer deliberately enrage the Shiite militias by slaughtering hundreds of innocent Shiite civilians at a time, then where are the extra 1000 deaths going to come from this month?

An interesting question. But it does look like Al Qaeda’s attempt at a Tet of their own failed, despite the Dems’ fervent desire for a repeat.

[Update in the evening]

More thoughts from Omar Fadhil, in Iraq.

An American Hero

Christopher Hitchens writes about a remarkable young man:

I became a trifle choked up after that, but everybody else also managed to speak, often reading poems of their own composition, and as the day ebbed in a blaze of glory over the ocean, I thought, Well, here we are to perform the last honors for a warrior and hero, and there are no hysterical ululations, no shrieks for revenge, no insults hurled at the enemy, no firing into the air or bogus hysterics. Instead, an honest, brave, modest family is doing its private best. I hope no fanatical fool could ever mistake this for weakness. It is, instead, a very particular kind of strength. If America can spontaneously produce young men like Mark, and occasions like this one, it has a real homeland security instead of a bureaucratic one. To borrow some words of George Orwell’s when he first saw revolutionary Barcelona, “I recognized it immediately as a state of affairs worth fighting for.”

In Saint Augustine

Doing touristy things. We’ll go see the fort, but I’ve been to too many big ones in the Caribbean (e.g., El Morro, Jefferson) to be impressed, at least gauging by the exterior. Posting will be sparse/intermittent until tomorrow night.