Commercial Space Telecon

I’m listening in now. Don’t know if I’ll ask a question or not.

Alex Saltman is introducing Michael Lopez-Alegria, the new head of the Commercial Spaceflight Federation.

Lopez-Alegria leads off by congratulating NASA and Roscosmos on the successful docking of the Soyuz last night. ISS is currently the anchor tenant for the commercial spaceflight industry. Talking about the importance of this weekend’s flight for NASA and SpaceX. Part of a transition to fixed-price acquisition strategy.

Sierra Nevada will be doing captive carry and drop tests of its vehicle later this month. Days approaching that we’ll see routine commercial spaceflight from US soil.

Lori Garver talking now. President and Congress have set us on an ambitious path forward. Talking about Orion activities in Florida and SLS at Stennis. Large spacecraft on way to Mars to land in August. Important to truly open up space to large numbers of people, and NASA will be focusing on more difficult missions beyond LEO. With activity coming on Saturday, hope to share more with the American people what we’re doing on ISS, and how helping make life better for Americans and the world.

Jeff Greason now. Been in commercial spaceflight business for fifteen years now, and every year we’re able to do more. SpaceX has competitors nipping at their heels, but someone has to be first, and he congratulates them. Reminding us why the Augustine panel recommended commercial crew — relying on a single provider makes for a fragile system, and it costs too much. No credible alternative to commercial crew services. Not only cheaper than non-commercial, but also cheaper than Russians. Competition only tool we have to keep costs down. Hopes program will go forward as originally envisioned. NASA not the only customer, but other won’t appear until they see that there’s a way to get there. Need to get flight rate up, with more customers, to get cost down.

Will be watching Dragon flight with interest, but we have to remember that test flights are called that for a reason. One success doesn’t prove reliability, and one failure doesn’t mean that problem found won’t be fixed. Will watch with fingers crossed.

Seth Borenstein: Can you provide rundown of where other companies are in commercial crew and COTS? What is happening with Blue Origin? Who will be the second non-SpaceX flight?

Lori: Great thing about commercial is that it’s not knowable — like early days of aviation. What is exciting to her is that there are non-government customers for this?

Mike LA: Don’t have access to that kind of information. Upcoming flight isn’t commercial crew. per se, so don’t even know who first flight will be for that.

Greason: By very nature, free markets are messy. Central planning easy to discuss because everyone knows what the five-year plan is, but also know that you won’t make the plan.

Lori: Upcoming drop test from Sierra Nevada, Blue Origin testing at Stennis.

Dan Leone (SPace News): If CC gets only $500M, will NASA continue to support competition?

Lori: Think that competition is important, and will do what they can with whatever they get, as long as legislation allows it. Doesn’t know how many competitors there are, and probably couldn’t say if she did. Goal is to have commercial capability as soon as possible.

Irene Klotz: How much will program be delayed with only $525M?

Lori: Competitors believe they can provide capability from 3-5 years. NASA’s estimates are always conservative, and less money probably means delay.

Michael LA: Boeing has said can fly as early as 2015 and SpaceX has similar proposals, and there is a funding profile associated with that schedule. But giving less money to a single competitor would create a monopoly pricing situation that will cost more and take longer.

Jeff: Congress will do what it does, and as a personal philosophy wants to limit government spending, but cutting commercial crew doesn’t do that, just shifts funding from American companies to Russian companies.

Jeff Foust: How to manage expectations so if they achieve only 80% of milestones, it’s not written off as a failure?

Lori: Any outcome is still a test (not a demonstration). Want public to recognize that this is a new way of doing business.

Michael: A lot of the success won’t be obvious (will be based on technical performance data). If get to ellipsoid around ISS that will be a milestone in itself.

Jeff: Compressing a lot of test objectives into a single mission (multiple missions for Gemini) and if they only get halfway there, still one for the books.

Messier: House spending plan problematic both in low funding level and restrictions. How optimistic that you can fix?

Michael LA: Still continuing to tell story that competitive approach is right approach. Want to see two competitors funded at least through orbital test flight. Somewhere between PDR and CDR right now, and way too early to bet on one horse or the other.

Frank Morring (Av Week): Lori: given that station utilization depends on commercial crew vehicles, how important is time to flight in selection process for next round?

Lori: Not aware if there’s a weighted criterion. Phil McAlister saying that it is.

Morring: Jeff, if there isn’t a down-select, what do you think of leader-follower concept?

Jeff: In the military, those haven’t been a model of cost efficiency. Even two is a little two small, because they create a duopoly that take turns winning things. Need a certain critical mass of competitors.

Keith Cowing: For past decade people have been able to buy their own seats on a commercial basis. With advent of commercial crew to US segment, will people be allowed to visit on their own dime?

Lori: Our priority is crew transport for astronauts. Recognize that there will be excess capacity. We recognize the potential for this, but also hope that there will be additional destinations. NASA’s thinking is evolving on this issue, and has come a long way since Tito.

Cowing: Would CASIS be involved in this?

Lori: Hasn’t addressed that yet.

Jeff: NASA’s space station, but won’t be NASA’s commercial transport vehicles, and companies will be free to find other customers.

Peter Spotz (sp?) Christian Science Monitor: Looking at past decade at growth in industry, what kind of feedback are you seeing from the next generation of engineers and researchers as a result of the increase in these companies?

Jeff: Great question. When I was graduating considered career in aerospace but decided not to, because didn’t see it as offering opportunity to build and fly stuff. That is changing now. Lot more things being developed that are going to fly. Has a stack of resumes from all over the US, and would have many from overseas if not for ITAR.

That was last question.

8 thoughts on “Commercial Space Telecon”

  1. I wish people would stop kowtowing to NASA on the issue of private citizens visiting the ISS. The question should not be “will NASA allow..”, it should be: when will NASA finish their damn studies and tell us the requirements to take private citizens to visit the ISS? They’ve had a decade to figure this stuff out. What’s the hold up? Why are they dragging their feet? Don’t they see that this is uncertainty is having a degrading effect on the ability of these providers to raise capital? Remove the uncertainty!

    1. Since ISS is in theory a National Lab, they should just use the same standards as visiting one of them.

      On the other hand, the less accessible ISS is the more customers there are for Bigelow.

  2. Why are they dragging their feet?

    Because they can? Really Trent, sometimes I think you’ve never worked inside a bureaucracy! 😉

    1. Whenever that is the honest non-cynical answer to a question, you should ask a bureaucrat that question. Why bother? Because everyone knows that is the real answer but they can’t say it. It’s an opportunity to remind listeners that these people are not normal, not honest, and are not on our side.

    2. Ken,

      Hopefully Elon Musk has learned that lesson well with COTS and will take the No NASA pledge and move on to fulfill his agreement with Bigelow 🙂

  3. Total crew capacity of ISS is 7.
    This is hardware limited.
    Crew is currently at 3 or 6 and can’t be any more than that because of the need to keep 1 (for 3) or 2 (for 6) soyuz docked for lifeboat duty.
    With commercial crew NASA will be able to up the crew to 7.
    So how can they support tourists?
    They can’t. Not in any meaningful way.
    Meaningful space tourism will have to wait for Bigelow.

  4. “Lori: Any outcome is still a test (not a demonstration)…”

    And, as my first boss in this business always reminded us, every test is “successful.” It may not produce the results you desire, because it’s a test…but if it happens at all, no matter what the outcome, it is a success.

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