11 thoughts on “The Coming Pilot Shortage”

  1. “For many would-be pilots, the consideration is purely financial: While flight training costs between $60,000 and $70,000, entry-level pilot positions typically pay $25,000 a year or less”

    Pay more and more people will sign up for pilot school.

    Up through the 80’s the USAF produced a lot of Jet qualified pilots, particularly, Multi-Engine Transport
    pilots with lots of hours. Now the USAF has far fewer fighter pilots, Far, Far fewer Bomber pilots and fewer Recon Pilots. The Airlines/Designers also changed it by eliminating Flight Engineers. Where the FE would clock hours and build the base of pilots, the change to 2 man crews, eliminated 33% of the job slots.
    FE didn’t pay great, but, it built seniority and experience.

    So, between that squeeze and the un attractive payscale to investment ratio, it’s a fundamental problem.
    Back in the 70’s a Pilot for American flying 727’s could make 80K, working 80 hours/month,
    now 40 years later, the pay is about the same, but the work hours are up to 120, and the flight crews went from 3 to 2.

  2. This reminds me of the many times Bill Gates or someone similar testifies in front of congress that he can’t find enough (fill in the blank) engineers. I would so much like to hear a senator ask Bill Gates if he thinks he could find enough engineers if he offered $1,000,000 per year in salary. What Bill really wants is for tax payers to subsidize the cost of engineers so that he can continue to make huge profits. Basically a transfer of tax dollars to him.

    The effect of this new law won’t be a shortage of pilots, it’ll be some combination of me paying more for a ticket and fewer travel choices. Still, no argument with the basic theme that most of our elected representatives are morons.

  3. I always thought the prospect of someone with technical knowledge and responsibility of a Pilot starting out around $25K was absurd and wondered what market distortion allowed it?

    Looks like the Gods of the Copybook Heading are finally claiming there due here.

    Even a small puddle-jumper, I wonder how much doubling that to 50K per annum makes difference-wise in the total cost of operating that plane for a year. It has to be in the noise.

    1. http://www.conklindd.com/CDALibrary/ACCostSummary.aspx

      if you poke around, the turboprops run 1500/hour to $3K/hour, while
      the gets are running 2K-14K/hour.

      Now a front Line Union Pilot at Delta is making about $100/Hour plus benefits.

      The pilots at little regionals are making 14-22/Hour starting out.

      Now if you think it’s a Market distortion you can figure it out.

      I think it’s because most pilots now aren’t unionized.

      But I’m sure you think that’s communism.

      1. I tend to think it is a supply and demand issue myself and there is likely some government interference at some level that is exacerbating the issue.

        The proper signal to a labor shortage is a higher wage and benefits.

  4. The problem with Unions is they haven’t had the right people running them yet.

    Unions, like Communism, have something in their nature that causes them to devolve toward corruption and cronyism. The systems favor the ruthless and lack sufficient checks and balances and insufficient distribution of power.

  5. Actually, as much as I like to blame government for any and all ills, it may not be their fault entirely.

    I’m an A&P mechanic, and spent 13 years working on all manner of aircraft, finally ending my career by voluntarily leaving American Airlines.

    There is no money, and no stability in aviation (on any aircraft type, or aviation business). You do it because you like it, and when you don’t,, you leave.
    Granted, my educational investment is not what a pilot’s is, but the ROI is similar.

    I’m in big oil now. more money, more stability, and I’m at the other end of the Jet A pipeline that supplies the airport I used to work at.

  6. It would be interesting to know how many regional pilots there are vs how many pilots in the Majors. I did a cursory web search but didn’t see any stats.

  7. According to the Air Line Pilots Association (the pilot’s union), the pilot shortage is a myth, at least for the present time.

    The thousands of airline pilots who are furloughed or working overseas when they would prefer to fly for a U.S. airline and live in this country makes it clear that no shortage of trained and qualified airline pilots currently exists in the United States, according to the Air Line Pilots Association, Int’l (ALPA). “There may be a shortage of qualified pilots who are willing to fly for U.S. airlines because of the industry’s recent history of instability, poor pay, and benefits,” said Capt. Lee Moak, president of ALPA. “But thousands of highly qualified and experienced U.S. airline pilots are either furloughed or working overseas and eager to return to U.S airline cockpits—under the right conditions.” According to ALPA, some 1,154 of its members are currently are furloughed from their airlines, including Comair, which closed in 2012 and furloughed more than 850 trained and experienced pilots, nearly all of whom are looking for jobs; and ASTAR, Evergreen and Ryan, which shut down and put some 800 pilots out of work.

    For the future, there are signs of a long term problem. The number of new student pilots has been declining for years. The high costs of flying is one reason and the poor career prospects for those interested in becoming professional pilots is another. Depending on where you live and what types of planes are available for instruction, it can cost well over $5000 just to get a private pilot’s certificate. It costs thousands more to earn an instrument rating and commercial license. If you want to earn some money with those minimal ratings, you’ll likely need to also pick up an instructor’s rating (CFI or CFII) and then fight for hours with the declining number of new student pilots. If you’re very lucky, you might get a job that lets you build hours until you reach the 1500 minimum. If not, you’re going to spend a lot of money building that kind of experience. You’ll likely need a multi-engine rating to have a shot at any kind of job so there’s more money out of your pocket. Some of the professional pilot schools hire their commercially rated students as instructors (at low wages) to let them build time but a prospective professional pilot who wasn’t able to get the military to pay for his training is going to be out a lot of money before being able to qualify for that elusive $25,000 copilot job.

    Why do the regional airlines pay so little? Most of them are barely making any money at all (if they’re lucky to make a profit). They could raise their ticket prices but that comes at the risk of people driving to their destinations (or the closest regional hubs) instead of buying a ticket. I’m serviced by the most expensive commercial airport in the country. Whenever I have to fly at my own expense, I always look at the ticket prices for the nearest two larger airports (both 100 miles away) and have booked flights through them from time to time. It can sometimes cost $200 more to fly out of my local airport than to go to one of those larger airports. The greater the differential in ticket prices, the more likely I’m going to avoid flying out of my local airport.

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