14 thoughts on “SpaceX”

1. I’d be curious to see the graph of US launches by payload per year. The mid-1960’s had lots of launches, but the payloads were smaller.

   1. I just looked over the first half of 1965 (all US orbital launches, most of which were recon satellites on Thors, plus a couple of Apollo and Gemini launches). By my estimate, so far this year SpaceX has put up about 2.5 times the LEO mass compared to what the entire US put into orbit in 1965.

      1. But only 60% as many people.

         1. Yes, but the people we send up now are, like, 350% more culturally sensitive!

         2. But in considerably greater comfort! (And safety.)

            1. While you know I was just poking fun with that comment, it could also be noted that the Demo flight alone produced more man hours in space than all five of the Gemini flights of 65. Time on the job in LEO by the Dragonriders of Musk in 2020 vs the Geminis of 65 will well exceed the 250% George mentioned above as well.

            2. And waay more flight hours!

         3. There were 5 manned Gemini missions in 1965, each carrying a crew of two. Those 5 missions totaled less than half the man-days in orbit than the single DM2 mission, and now we have four people launched by the commercial mission.

            1. Which brings up another data point: In 2020, 12 people were launched into orbit. 6 of them were launched by SpaceX.

               In 2021, the tentative numbers look like this:

               SpaceX: 12
               Russia: 6
               Boeing: 3
               China: 3

               Not too shabby.

2. I’m so old that I can remember the furious debates regarding whether SpaceX’s preposterously optimistic launch cadence goal of one launch per month was even remotely feasible.

   I can also remember when the notion that Falcon 9 could ever catch up to the Atlas 5 in number of launches was likewise deemed absurd.
   (Falcon 9, 100. Atlas 5, 85)
   🙂

   1. And demonstrated reliability has matched as well even with the early loss. Plus I think dispatch reliability has also surpassed that of the Atlas 5. Though I would be willing to admit error in either of my assertions if proven otherwise.

3. I like these apples to oranges comparisons. Do this again next Thanksgiving. By then, to keep it close, we will need to put a dominion voting systems factor on Spacex.

   1. Yes, yes, keep up with this paranoid grumbling. There’s MAGA voting to suppress in the Georgia senate runoffs.

      “One prominent Trump ally, Atlanta attorney Lin Wood, who unsuccessfully sued Georgia election officials to stop the certification of the vote, has urged Republican voters not to vote in elections with Dominion machines.”

      1. How many people are likely to listen or is he encouraging them to vote by other means?

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