They’re running out of gasoline, and their air defenses have become worthless.
Or (and hear me out), they could withdraw from Ukraine. https://t.co/Diu8XPhIQa
— Rand Simberg (@Simberg_Space) June 30, 2026
They’re running out of gasoline, and their air defenses have become worthless.
Or (and hear me out), they could withdraw from Ukraine. https://t.co/Diu8XPhIQa
— Rand Simberg (@Simberg_Space) June 30, 2026
Putin needs a golden bridge to retreat across, or he’s dead.
Ukraine isn’t rational enough to give him one.
On the contrary, Ukraine has left the damaged Kerch Strait Bridge standing in order to give the Russian population of Crimea a way to flee the peninsula now that its other logistics arteries have been effectively cut and daily life is becoming impossible. The Kerch can’t handle trucks or military equipment, but it can still handle cars. The Ukrainians, quite rationally, wish to force the Russians out to the greatest extent possible before making any move to actually take the place back.
Anent Putin, the Ukrainians have been rational enough to leave him alive to be eventually set upon by his fellow kleptocrats and/or the general Russian population once things get bad enough.
Every day that passes, the Ukrainians are better able to resist Russian depredations and Russia grows less able to resist what President Zelenskyy archly refers to as “long-range sanctions.” Russia is bleeding out. The only real question is whether or not the process will proceed far enough to cause national death if Russia fails to yield before that.
I disagree that they are rational enough to provide Putin an exit. They, understandably, want vengeance and humiliation.
There’s no exit for Putin rational or otherwise. If Ukraine were to concede to his demands then he would need to start another war in order to retain power and siphon a bit more of Russia’s wealth.
Sun Zsu agrees.
Mr. Trump gave him a golden bridge and then some, but he wouldn’t take it. People who just plain didn’t understand Mr. Trump were mad at him for giving a way the store, as it were.
One of the thing about a “deal” is time pressure: act now because it is for a limited time. This is something Mr. Putin doesn’t get, and neither do the folks in a nearby part of the world.
A big tell in Ukraine/American relations is how Zelenskyy’s language has changed. Trump didn’t just walk away. After the talks broke down, the CIA provided Ukraine with detailed targeting information on Russian refineries and which parts would be the hardest to replace and Ukraine started hitting them. Trump basically said, ok have fun dealing with Ukraine. Then set about attacking Russia’s allies, seizing tankers, and providing other unheralded aide, like starlink.
Zelenskyy kept saying things like, We want to get back to negotiations but Trump is too busy. It isn’t that Trump is uninvolved, he is just playing a role behind the scenes locally while being more overt globally. It just so happens that America’s interests and Ukraine’s intersect here but it is something most Ukrainiacs fail to comprehend.
Open question if or when Trump would try and make a deal between the two countries again and under what conditions he would feel it is necessary.
Ukraine isn’t rational enough to give him one.
This war hasn’t lasted longer than the First World War because Ukraine was irrational.
There is a difference between min/maxing resources and being rational in other areas. Ukrainiacs aren’t rational either.
Ukraine would have been defeated by now if they weren’t rational in a bunch of areas. And really what does rational mean here?