Ozan runs some numbers.
After the Starship $300/kg price floor nonsense made the rounds, the ones who shared the studies started saying there isn't a better model out there to look at. I'd be willing to bet whatever @mach33 has put out is way better, but I've always run my own numbers on this stuff…
— Ozan Bellik (@BellikOzan) September 7, 2026
I don’t understand, though, how you get two flights per pad per day into SSO, at least not if you want the SSO on the terminator, which is where everyone claims to want to be, for continuous sunlight.
Yes, for SSO on the terminator launching only to the south, each pad can only do one launch per day. But you have to salvo all of the pads you have at pretty much the same time, hoo boy will THAT be impressive.
After the dawn fleet, you can reload and send tankers up for deep space missions at several times during the day, and there are some interesting reasons to put Mars-bound vehicles into polar parking orbits. I need to do some more thrashing with GMAT.
If you put up tanker missions several times a day they’re all going to be in different orbits. The only orbit that you can launch into multiple times a day is equatorial, and if you don’t do it from the equator, the payload penalty is horrendous.