Keith Cowing is pessimistic.
I’m not. NASA isn’t able to lead, but America will continue to.
[Update a few minutes later]
Speaking of which…
Launch now NET Jnuary 15th, with static engine test on Saturday. That will be impressive by itself, even without a lift off. If it’s successful, chances of a successful launch go way up. I suspect the biggest uncertainty is plume interaction between the cores, and that will resolve it.