It isn’t a tulip mania; it’s the next Internet.
I will note that SpaceX stock continues to decline, with a daily (and historic, for its short history) low today of $110.85, so everyone who bought at the IPO is currently underwater. But probably a buying opportunity now.
I was able to buy some SpaceX at near it’s opening…and yes, I’m underwater,
But I bought it not as an investment, but as an act of faith. That humanity will own the stars. Not in my lifetime, maybe not my children’s. But my grandchildren’s?
Ditto. I bought a few shares as a long-term investment that I expect to appreciate nicely in coming years and which I plan to leave to my offspring. I also bought in for all of the non-financial reasons you listed. Over the short term, as J.P. Morgan famously said, the market will fluctuate. As Musk’s plans incrementally actualize, share price appreciation will take care of itself.
Yes. If your are 40 years old or younger and can afford it, buy SpaceX. You will likely own a decent investment in a good chunk of the Solar System in retirement.
Also buy if you want to leave them to children and grandchildren. Don’t bother to trade, just buy and forget.
In the short term, markets are stupid. It isn’t an investment market, it is a casino.
Sadly, yes. The market quickly ceased being an instrument of aggregated wisdom in the late 1980s when most trades ceased being initiated by actual people and were, instead, made by computer algorithms. The algorithms, in turn, are all devised by a few dozen “quants” in the big finance houses that all went to Harvard or MIT, all live in NYC and all know each other.
Still, the real world does have its way even with the algorithms. Musk has been the biggest individual disruption to conventional economic and finance wisdom in decades and he’s a long way from peaking. And he’s no longer alone.
People buy SpaceX stock because of the hype, then the press obligingly responds with repeated disaster stories. No big surprise there; after all, Musk is Target #2 on the media’s radar screen.
But the stock will certainly start rising again after Starship starts operating in a predictable evolution, once it is truly providing launch at demonstrable lower prices, and dozens of new businesses start using their services in unexpected ways. I would think this starts in the next two to five years.
I got in at the IPO but I’m now hoping for a brief dip below $100 (as I have a buy setup at that price) before a swift climb to orbit… 😉
This has been happening to IPO’s since there were IPO’s. Speculators struggle to move the price one way or the other, then equilibrium is reached.
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/2080812111656050904
Starship is firey but positively bouyant, much like the stock.
LoL Still SuperHeavy took an undo plunge and is under water… 🙂
My view is that presently SpaceX is presently valued as an AI company that happens to dabble in space flight and global satellite internet. Thus it is heavily overvalued as a space company. I’ve predicted a massive drop in the overall AI industry in the next few years.
Here’s my take. By January 20, 2030, the entirety of the US AI sector will be valued in the stock market at less than SpaceX is valued today (2.1 trillion USD in year 2026 dollars to adjust for inflation) with a good chance that it’ll be well under a trillion USD.
Unfortunately, I think SpaceX will get caught in the plunge and see a large valuation drop (I think a drop of an order of magnitude) as part of that. The problem is once the tulip blossum fades, AI won’t generate the value to support current prices, SpaceX included. Then it’ll need to depend on the space stuff. That can explode and still not be enough to support $200 billion valuation.
I have no understanding of the AI business, which may be why this sounds right to me.
If you’ve ever read Vernor Vinge’s True Names, space-based AI data centers bring a whole new interpretation to this Norman Greenbaum classic.