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The Social-Distancing Experiment

14 Comments

…has failed.

This reminds me of the old Soviet joke about the kid in a classroom, asking if Marx was the greatest scientist in history. After being assured by the teacher that that was the case, he asked “Well, why didn’t he try this crap on rats first?”

[Update a while later]

Policy and punditry must adapt to new data.

14 thoughts on “The Social-Distancing Experiment”

  1. In Virginia, the Department of Health announced Friday that it has changed the way new cases are counted. No longer are new cases equal to the number of people who have tested positive, but rather to the number of tests giving a positive result. It took me a few moments to figure out what I was hearing. As of Friday, if someone takes more than one virus test and each test is positive, each test is then counted as a new case.

    Unsurprisingly, the rate of new cases in Virginia jumped 15% that day.

    I told my wife this, and she shook her head and said sadly “They’re never going to let us go.”

  2. “But five weeks later, the area is reporting a record number of COVID-19 cases. Yes, of course, testing is ramping up, too—but considering the harsh stay-at-home orders, how and why are people still getting infected?”

    Why dismiss testing ramped up- it was predicted and it was obvious to would cause more cases.
    But what else? It probably required about 2 weeks on average after getting infected, for someone to show up at hospital.
    And if show up at hospital and don’t have it, showing up at hospital could give you the virus, and if given it, it can’t be detected within couple days.
    Or if people think they might have virus, there is say 1/10 chance of test indicating they have it. And what people think, can be screened by doctors and they can of opinion that patient doesn’t show the correct symptoms and perhaps doctor is wrong 1/2 the time. But if patient is severely ill, they probably are treated in some fashion and if well enough, sent home.
    But if you have fast and easy tests, a doctor may do test first, then diagnosis, later. Though a priority of testing will go to testing medical people- if positive they go home, until they test that they no longer have virus.
    So with lots of tests which are cheap and fast, you should thoroughly test medial staff- as you don’t want them infecting any patient. Not sure we even at point of having cheap, fast, and reliable testing at the moment, but we might be getting close to being there.
    And is there any stats on these tests of medical staff, and number who were mildly sick, severely sick, or died from Chinese virus.
    That would be important thing to know. But there are a lot things which are important which are not known.
    One thing I would like to know, is can you measure how much Chinese virus is in the air- say in various places in a hospital, then expand it, to other essential work areas- say like the Congressional buildings, grocery stores, etc.
    At moment there are +24,713 new cases in US.
    There was about 30,000 new cases and most were in New York State. And at moment New York State has +3,491 new cases, a dramatic lowering of new cases in New York State. New York State has had 1,007,310 tests done.
    New York State has about 20 million pop out total US pop of 320 million, 1/8th of US pop and 1/7th the US total tests of 7,462,431 and focus of testing has now shifted to other hot spots in the US, where most of new cases are occuring. And vast majority of US deaths are occurring.
    Or social distancing of New York State seemed to have worked, but it looks like they didn’t start social distancing soon enough- about 1/2 week to 1 week, too late.
    And I would say, when Trump quickly blocked air travel with China, it might been as much as one week too late. But “everyone” was calling him racist, for acting as soon as he did. And probably such efforts of demonizing Trump, lead to New York State delaying in what was obvious that needed to be done, sooner.

  3. It seems obvious, that it was Pelosi obviously unconstitutional impeachment, and her delay of her unlawful process is one reason so many Americans lost their lives and the wreckage done to ecomony.

    BUT the worst War Crime goes to WHO, and first prize of most incompetent and dangerous governmental action, goes to Chinese Government. BUT WHO is most criminally responsible and most corrupt, evil, and frighteningly stupid.

  4. I agree that many governments’ policies have been stupid or abusive, but Sweden may not be the libertarian paradise we had hoped for. Its death and infection rates are middling for Europe but much greater than the other Nordic countries.

    The Swedish public broadcaster provides the best pandemic dataviz I have seen.
    https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/ Comparative data are under the headings “The development of deaths” (select “andel döda”) and “Development in Sweden and neighbouring countries”

  6. “…has failed.”
    But only in America, across the majority of the rest of the world it’s working very well.

  7. Sadly this is really only a threat to grandma and grandpa who are already declining and those that are in poor physical shape. Remind you of anyone? Of course it does, that describes about twenty percent of the population. That’s why medical experts have been, to say the least, conservative in their predictions and their recomendations. GIVE THEM A BREAK! We caused this, now go for a walk with someone you love. Then do it again tomorrow. Repeat. Love you Rand.

      1. Maybe “we” is “us” corporate elites who used China for cheap labor, and the “us” lobbists that made so many laws which inhibited their competition, that no corporations could not run a business within US without being bailed out by government.

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