Category Archives: Space

Popular Culture, Science And Society, Space, Technology and Society

More Clarke Thoughts

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From John Derbyshire:

It is plain from his life and his work that Clarke was deeply in love with the idea of space. In 1956 he went to live in Sri Lanka so that he could spend his spare time scuba diving, the nearest he could get to the silence, weightlessness, and mystery of space. That profound imaginative connection with the great void is one of the things that separates science fiction writers and fans from the unimaginative plodding mass of humanity — the Muggles. Clarke had it in spades. The other thing he dreamt of, and wrote about, constantly was alien civilizations: how incomprehensibly magical they will appear to us when we encounter them, and how they will deal with us.

He mentions Bradbury in his remembrance. Some thought of them as four: Heinlein, Asimov, Clarke, and Bradbury. I never did. I like Ray Bradbury, both as an author, and personally (I met him occasionally when I lived in LA), but I never considered his work science fiction, at least not hard science fiction. It was more in the realm of fantasy and poetry to me (and of course, Fahrenheit 451, which was a political dystopia).

[Late morning update]

Bruce Webster agrees:

I’m not sure I’ve ever met, talked to, or read of an engineer or scientist who was inspired to become such because of something Bradbury wrote. I’m not saying they’re not out there — I just think it’s a very small number, especially when compared to Asimov, Clarke, and Heinlein.

Yes. I enjoyed some (though not all) of Bradbury’s work, but I was never inspired by it. It just seemed too far from an attainable reality to me.

[Update a couple minutes later]

Even Bradbury himself agrees:

First of all, I don’t write science fiction. I’ve only done one science fiction book and that’s Fahrenheit 451, based on reality. Science fiction is a depiction of the real. Fantasy is a depiction of the unreal. So Martian Chronicles is not science fiction, it’s fantasy. It couldn’t happen, you see? That’s the reason it’s going to be around a long time–because it’s a Greek myth, and myths have staying power.

Business, Economics, Political Commentary, Space

Irrational

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Mike Griffin is worried about losing a Shuttle crew if the program is extended:

“Given that our inherent risk assessment of flying any shuttle mission is about a 1-in-75 fatality risk, if you were to fly 10 more flights, you would have a very substantial risk of losing a crew. I don’t want to do that.”

If we accept his risk number, that translates into a 13% chance over ten flights. That doesn’t seem “substantial” to me. There are a lot of good reasons to not extend the program, but risk of crew loss isn’t one of them. I’m sure that most of the astronauts would be happy to take the risk, and the real loss wouldn’t be astronauts (of whom we have a large oversupply), but the loss of another orbiter, which would almost certainly end the program, because they probably couldn’t manage with only two left. If what they’re doing is important enough to risk an orbiter, that is almost literally irreplaceable, it’s surely important enough to risk crew, who are all volunteers, and fully informed of the risk.

When I was watching coverage of the cranewreck in Manhattan yesterday, they cited a statistic from the Bureau of Labor statistics that there were forty-three construction deaths last year (I think in New York alone). Can someone explain to me why is it acceptable to kill construction workers, but not astronauts?

On the other hand, here’s one thing that I do agree with Mike on: the last thing we need is another space race.

Space

The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

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Not that he’s ever been optimistic, but “Rocketman” thinks that the end of ESAS is in sight:

MSFC and contractor engineers are looking at all sorts of band aids for the vibration problem that ARES is most prone to. The leading candidate this week is a “D” strut system between the first and second stage to reduce the vibration that will literally shake the crew to pieces. The Emperor is putting all of his chips on the table betting on the strut. But the contractors are forlorn. They know the strut has issues…and they know ARES will go away with the Emperor in short order. Its hard to work on something you know is headed for the trash heap of history.

I haven’t worked on the program for a year and a half, but I can imagine that a lot of people are eying their options to bail.

[Update in the afternoon]

Once again, Mark Whittington demonstrates his lack of comprehension of the English language.

exalt (g-zôlt)
tr.v. exalted, exalting, exalts
1. To raise in rank, character, or status; elevate: exalted the shepherd to the rank of grand vizier.
2. To glorify, praise, or honor.
3. To increase the effect or intensity of; heighten: works of art that exalt the imagination.

No one familiar with written English could imagine that my above words do any of those three things, in any way.

If and when the program does die, I will not be rejoicing. I will be grieving over the lost years and lost billions. But my grief will be tempered by the hope (though, sadly, not expectation) that we will finally start doing something sensible.

Space

Too Big A Hurry?

16 Comments

Rob Coppinger writes that the Chinese are taking big risks rushing their human space program.

We’ll see. They may be going too fast for safety, but at their current general sluggish pace, they’re not going to beat us to the moon any time soon, despite Mike Griffin’s cynical scare mongering.

Philosophy, Political Commentary, Science And Society, Space

Why Is Earth Here?

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Lileks seems to be a co-religionist with me:

You know, every so often I run across comments on message boards from the “12 Monkeys” demographic, the people who wish people would just disappear and leave the earth alone. If the Aftermath show has any message, it’s how useless the world would be without people. Without humans it’s just hunting and rutting, birthing and dying, a clock with no chimes. It’s always interesting how people romanticize Nature, and ascribe all manner of purpose and intelligence to it, lamenting the injuries people wreak on the innocent globe. I’d love to read an interview with Gaia in which she says that her goal all along was to come up with a species that could produce Beethoven and make rockets to send the music deep into space. Now that’s something to make the other planets sit up and take notice. You think the point is merely to provide a home for thirty billion varieties of insect? I can’t tell you how much they itch. Sorry about the earthquakes, but it’s the only way I can scratch.

I do believe in a teleology, and this belief is not scientific at all.

And there’s nothing wrong with that.

Administrative, Space

Night Launch

8 Comments

Don’t know how many more night launches there will be for the Shuttle, I’ve never seen one up close, it’s 90% go weather wise for the flight tonight, and everything else seems on track, so we’re going to drive up and stay in Orlando tonight. Blogging may be light until the morrow, when I’ll be coming back down (Patricia has business up there).

Space

More Marburger Thoughts

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From Jon Goff (related to my previous post). I thought that this is a very key point, that demonstrates the absurdity of Mike’s (or at least, people like Mark Whittington’s) thinking:

There’s been talk from NASA and some of their less discerning fanboys of a “Lunar COTS”. Basically the idea is to waste $100-120B on using Constellation to setup a small ISS on the Moon, and then once its there start paying commercial entities to service said base. This creates an interesting situation. Since NASA won’t have done anything for over a decade to help make it easier for commercial entities to actually service the moon, they’ll either have to keep sustaining the base themselves while they spend the money to belatedly help develop that commercial capability. Or, if the commercial market has independently created that capability anyhow, that NASA base will likely be only a small niche market in the cislunar space.

Yes, there’s a huge logical disconnect here. Either NASA will have developed technology that makes it easy for the commercial folks to access the moon (which they currently are not) or they are counting on the commercial folks to have done that on their own, in which case, that means that there’s already a thriving lunar market, of which NASA will be a trivial part, because otherwise, it won’t have happened commercially. NASA’s current high-cost, low-activity plans really do have the effect of ensuring the worst of all worlds for them, and us.