Category Archives: Economics

The Human Spaceflight Report

Dale Skran has a review, that mirrors a lot of my own concerns with it:

There is no discussion at all that the prospect for increased traffic to LEO for all purposes, including tourism, might lead to significantly lower costs; or that it may lead to reusable spacecraft with superior operational characteristics relative to existing vehicles or the SLS. This glaring absence seems remarkable given the stated goal of SpaceX to develop just such lower-cost, reusable craft, as well as their considerable progress in this direction. Of course, the efforts of SpaceX, Virgin Galactic, Blue Origin, XCOR Aerospace, and others to greatly reduce launch costs may all fail. However, the NRC report is based on the unstated assumption that over the entire period considered, all the way out to 2054, there will be essentially no progress in rocketry other than that funded by NASA exploration programs, and that for the entire period the SLS as currently envisioned will remain the preferred method for Americans to reach space. It is difficult to imagine a more unlikely foundation for the planning of future space efforts than this.

It is extremely myopic, and therefore of little value, but it was probably doomed to be so by its charter.

Climate Change

…and hot air:

In other words mitigation to slow or halt GHG emissions will be costly today with little payout over the next 100, if not 1000, years, making it unlikely that large mitigation projects have a positive net present value. And for these results to occur, the United States would have to be joined by the rest of the industrialized nations as well as the developing ones, something that is not going to happen.

Given that mitigation has gained little policy traction, many climate scientists seem to be paying more attention to adaptation. Indeed, the subtitle of the IPCC’s 2014 report is Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. In contract to earlier IPCC reports, the press release in April mentioned mitigation only once and adaptation 12 times. According to Chris Field, chairman of one of the IPCC working groups, “The really big breakthrough in this report is the new idea of thinking about managing climate change.”

What a concept.

[Noon update]

Math is math: “(100,000′s of Jobs + Billions of Taxpayer $’s) x 85 years = 0.018° C.”

The Cantor Defeat In Virginia

it’s not obvious, but it’s potentially great news for space policy.

[Update a while later]

I elaborate at Ricochet.

[Wednesday-morning update]

OK, for those who aren’t Ricochet members, here’s what I posted there, under the title “What Does Cantor’s Loss Mean For Space Policy?”:

OK, I know that post title will excite almost no one, because no one (to first order) cares about space policy. It’s a prevailing theme of my (non-best-selling) book.

But for those few who care, Eric Cantor didn’t give a damn about it. Neither did/does John Boehner

But Cantor just got involuntarily retired, and Boehner has long displayed indifference to continuing as Speaker of the House.

So tonight’s electoral loss will set off a huge and unpredictable fight for House leadership. While I don’t want to predict the outcome, the most obvious beneficiary of tonight’s event is Kevin McCarthy, the Majority Whip (usually considered to be second in line behind Majority Leader, which Cantor was). If McCarthy takes over as leader as a result of Cantor’s not only loss, but humiliation, he will be next in line to take over as Speaker if (as seems likely) Boehner steps down next year.

Which means that the congressman from Kern County, California, will be in a position to select members and chairs of the committees that oversee the NASA, DoD and FAA budgets. Which means that he will be in a position to select Congresspeople who could decide to stop making insane decisions about human spaceflight based on their own parochial interests, and instead congresspeople who actually care whether or not we actually open up space. Because he will have a local constituency in Mojave that has a strong interest in commercial spaceflight, he may exercise his power to make the committee more friendly to it than it has been in the past.

Will this happen? Who knows?

There will be a potentially chaotic fight for leadership in the sudden vacuum, and McCarthy may not come out on top. But if he does, things may suddenly become very interesting for the future of productive human spaceflight, because he will be potentially a Speaker of the House whose willing ear commercial space advocates will have.

[Wednesday-morning update]

CNN (I know) is reporting that with Cantor’s defeat, Boehner’s interest in stepping down is somewhat, if not a lot diminished. Apparently Cantor was the heir apparent, and Boehner may not step aside for anyone else. Of course, there is no iron-clad law that he continue to be Speaker. Like Cantor, he himself may be susceptible to a challenge from one of the young turks.

One other point. The next shoe to fall will be Cantor’s replacement as Majority Leader, which will likely happen soon, because he’s lost a lot of clout as a lame duck. If it’s McCarthy, he will become the new heir apparent (since he had previously been favored by Boehner). And even as Majority Leader, he’ll have a lot more influence over the committee structure.

[Update a while later]

OK, according to this National Journal article, McCarthy may be a victim of a general revolt. We’ll see how he maneuvers. But actually, Ryan wouldn’t necessarily be bad for space policy either.

[Afternoon update]

OK, one thing I hadn’t factored in. McCarthy may have to buy votes with committee chairmanships, which complicates any efforts to clean up the policy mess.